10pm update: Like many of the weather hobbyists and enthusiasts out there, we just saw a horrible run of the latest NAM model, which suggests a redux of the March 2001 blizzard that was predicted by everyone (for this area) and never happened.... and this latest NAM model run is causing panic everywhere. Before snow lovers head to the bridges, radar and upper air analysis both suggest different. The NAM is a model, and models are tools - but dont make forecasts. Observations do. So observed data shows the radar much more impressive just offshore. This wall of snow is taking aim on New York City and points west. Question is, how far west does it go? It is what we will be watching over the next several hours. Hard to believe that the wall of snow will just fall apart. So radar is image #1... all moving to the west. Image #2 is the upper air analysis at 700mb (7,500 feet up) and we now have a closed off low at that level - which is ahead of schedule in closing off and in a good position. This should allow the heavy snow to expand westward overnight. We will watch these trends over the next 2 hours to see if it continues. For us, this is like watching paint dry. But it is a critical next few hours. Cant make any changes until we see how the next few hours play out.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 02:56:12 +0000
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