200 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN PRISCILLA HAS VANISHED...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OVERLAID BY MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A TIMELY 1717Z ASCAT-B PASS HELPED TO PROVIDE BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO TO SHOW PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE DUE TO IT TRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR. ALONG ITS PROJECTED PATH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE WEST SHORTLY...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS INDICATED IN A DAY. HOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-EMERGE SOON. PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 18.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 18.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA WWWW MC
Posted on: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 20:38:10 +0000
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