Adamawa Decides 2014! The October 11, 2014 governorship bye- election in Adamawa will be won and lost by the ruling People Democratic Party (PDP) through the aspirant selection process. As at today, PDP have 14 aspirants that will be screened on or before Saturday. The waiver application to Engr Gundiri, Maj Gen Marwa and Mallam Ribadu is another contentious issue on the aspirant screening process. Head or tail Adamawa is a largely a PDP state, implying that if the right candidate is chosen as the flag bearer in the October 11 election, there is over 60% chance that the will be the next governor of the state. A wrong candidate will hand the victory to Labour Party, the likely landing for any popular candidate that the power brokers has shortchanged. Of all the 14 Aspirants there are only 4 serious contenders in terms of popularity and being pushed by PDP power structures in Abuja. The aspirants are, 1] Acting Gov Fintiri, 2] Engr Gundiri, 3] Maj Gen Marwa and 4] Mallam Ribadu. CHANCES OF THE 4 ASPIRANTS. A] Engr Markus Gundiri. The Water Resources Expert was forced out of PDP when his victory against Nyako in PDP Primaries was handed over to the later. Engr Gundiri who have a grassroot support grudgingly moved to relatively unknown ACN in the state and became their candidate in the 2011 election. Markus Gundiri (ACN), polled 241,023 votes, while Nyako (PDP) with PDP structure in his favour won with 302, 953 votes. Nyako won 13 of the 21 local governments while the Engr Marcus Gundiri prevailed in 8. It is certain that If the power brokers in PDP blocks Engr Gundiri this second time, he will win the election under another platform not APC. B] Acting Governor Fintiri should have benefited alot as Incumbent governor, but the process of his emergence will not permit that to happen. The former Speaker was instrumental to the impeachment of former Governor Nyako and the resignation of his deputy, therefore it is morally wrong his aspiring to replace Nyako. Mr Fintiri is little known in Adamawa and has a limited electoral value and can be easily defeated by APC with the support of Nyako supporters. C] Maj Gen Buba Marwa was an accomplished former Lagos state governor under the military, but this sound attribute he has not been to translate this fit into a strong political support locally. He was the candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011 Adamawa state governorship election, even with the euphoria of Buhari, he was only able to win 107,564, about 16% of the votes. He can be defeated by a strong candidate from the opposition. D] Mallam Nuhu Ribadu is the least among the PDP contender for the governorship position. Mallam Ribadu who was reportedly drafted into the race by the principal private secretary to the President, Ambassador Hassan Tukur and supported by the PDP Chairman who is speculated to be returning the favour the former EFCC boss gave to him when he was accused of misappropriating Bauchi stat funds. Ribadu is accused by the PDP governors as a mole of APC, who will return back to his party after winning the election under PDP. Other PDP National working Committee members accused of attempting to sabotage the Jonathan government by leaking to all the embassies in the country the Probe report of NNPC even when he claimed that he has little time to finish his work. In the last Presidential Election in 2011, Mallam Ribadu secured only 3.61% of the votes in Adamawa as he is relatively unknown in the state. In conclusion, the only game changer will be any attempt to push Engr Gundiri who is the most popular candidate and who is in position to ensure total victory for President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 Presidential election out of the race. His continued enjoying the support of local people, PDP and APC supporters is an advantage that dwarfs his opponents.
Posted on: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 06:30:29 +0000
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