Broader Horizons: Changing Tanker Fundamentals Over the last decade, the structure of the tanker market has undergone significant changes in both supply and demand. To accommodate these trends, we have made a number of adjustments to the way in which the crude and products markets are defined. New Products: One key trend has been in the types of vessels carrying oil products. In recent years, orders for, and recent deliveries of, some MRs have had IMO-II graded tanks. These vessels have been previously categorised as chemical tankers. However, owing to the fact that these vessels are now carrying oil products and veg oils, and that the number of these vessels is increasing, they are now included in the product tanker fleet. As demonstrated on the Graph of the Month, the IMO-II graded product tanker fleet has increased from 1.5m dwt in 2003 to 11.5m dwt as of start 2013. Looking for flexibility, owners ordered MR product tankers with IMO-II graded tanks from yards which had ready-made designs. Consequently, many vessels were acquired for the purpose of trading a variety of cargoes, which has led to their inclusion into the products fleet. Variety From Vegetables This flexibility includes the ability of to carry vegetable oil cargoes, which have as a result been included in product tanker trade. IMO-II and IMO-III tankers have always taken some veg oil cargoes to supplement volumes. However,estimated tanker demand driven by the veg oil trade has surged by a CAGR of 4.5% between 2008 and 2012. Consequently, more and more owners based in the Atlantic have used veg oils to triangulate from South America to Europe or Asia, having moved an oil product cargo from the US Gulf to East Coast South America. Fuel Oil Factor At the same time, it has also become clear that a dirty petroleum product (DPP) trade on uncoated tankers has emerged. Estimated DPP demand on uncoated (i.e. ‘crude’) tankers has risen rapidly, growing at a CAGR of 12.6% between 2008 and 2012, and projected to increase by 8.1% y-o-y in full year 2013. This reflects the developing trend of very long-haul trades in fuel oil, which offer an advantage to the larger traditional crude carriers, owing to their inherent economies of scale. Furthermore, the overcapacity in the crude fleet following the recession, with overall fleet growth reaching a CAGR of 5.1% between 2008 and 2012, led to crude tanker owners looking to support their earnings and reduce ballast and waiting time by taking DPP cargoes. The shift between crude and DPP cargoes rarely requires cleaning of the tanks, allowing owners more trading flexibility. This trend is here to stay, and as a result DPP trade on uncoated ships has been added to crude tanker demand. Ultimately, the structure of the tanker market is not immutable. Incremental but important changes occur over many years, driven by the change in trading patterns. This was particularly evident following the onset of the global economic downturn in 2008. As a result, a number of adjustments have been made to the structure of our tanker supply and demand statistics. As times change, it’s appropriate that the framework of reference should too. Source: Clarkson Market Reasearch
Posted on: Mon, 26 Aug 2013 06:13:32 +0000
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