CAMBODIA, LAOS AND MYANMAR BUSINESS FORECAST REPORT Q3 2014 The Myanmar economy expanded by 7.5% in FY2013/14 according to an ADB estimate, topping our above consensus forecast of 7.1% for the year. Strong performances were seen in the extractive industries as a result of soaring natural gas exports, as well as in services. Tourism was the best performing area in the services sector, as Myanmar received approximately 2.0mn foreign visitors in 2013 versus just 1.0mn in 2012, marking a 100% increase. While we believe that outperformance in the tourism sector is likely to continue over the medium term, we note that a renewed push in terms of economic and political reforms on behalf of the government will be necessary in order to bulk up the countrys lagging infrastructure. While we remain sanguine on Myanmars economic prospects, the governments recent census once again underscores the substantial political risks facing the countrys development. Meanwhile, 2015s elections loom ever larger in the midst of a push to reform the constitution. Cambodias political scene has taken a turn for the worse over recent months. The crackdown by the government on protesting garment workers poses a risk to the sectors otherwise positive medium term outlook. Meanwhile, it also raises the stakes in the ongoing impasse between the ruling Cambodia Peoples Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), with the opposition CNRP becoming increasingly emboldened by their growing support base, and Hun Sens CPP facing a tough task in maintaining the countrys stable business environment. On the economic front, while the tourism industry continues to show promise, the construction sector is likely to suffer over the coming quarters as the nations credit boom winds down. The current lending boom is resembling that which came to a rapid end amid the global financial crisis, and we believe that the countrys hot real estate sector could be in for a rude awakening. Despite the fact that Laos scores very highly in our... The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.. An influential new analysis of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmars economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI). Key Uses Forecast the pace and stability of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmars economic and industry growth through end-2017. Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation. Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability. ContextualiseCambodia, Laos and Myanmars country risks against regional peers using BMIs country comparative Risk Ratings system. Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies. The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook. Economic Outlook: How will the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017? BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management. Economic Outlook Contents The Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report features BMIs forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMIs evaluation of global and regional prospects. Key Areas Covered: Data: Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate. BMIs comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context. Written Analysis: Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence). Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account. Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price). Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves. Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms. Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate. External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure). Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone. Key Benefits Rely upon BMIs 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned. Exploit the benefits of BMIs comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts. Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your companys business prospects, from BMIs team of analysts and economists. Political Outlook: What are the political risks to doing business in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar over the next 5-years? BMIs Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability. Political Outlook Contents SWOT Analysis for the Cambodian, Lao and Myanmar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMIs Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmars risk are compared with regional and global averages. Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment. Key Benefits Benchmark Cambodia, Laos and Myanmars risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets. Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your companys current operations and future plans. Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMIs specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
Posted on: Mon, 07 Jul 2014 02:23:52 +0000
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