Expect the Unexpected: 5 U.S. Senate Races Where the National Media Is Probably Misreading Polls ::posted Mon, 03 Nov 2014 19:22:00 +0000:: ift.tt/13ANmxu If you live in one of these states, your vote really counts. The time has come in 2014’s midterm elections to stop looking at polls and start looking at actual voter turnout figures—from absentee ballots already mailed in to early in-person voting. Those preliminary results reveal that many tightly contested U.S. Senate races are far too close to call. National outlets such as the New York Times and the Washington Post are predicting that Republicans will emerge with a Senate majority once all the ballots are counted. But one of the nation’s best-respected voter-turnout experts, Michael P. McDonald of the University of Florida, says not so fast—and explains why. In key states where the national media has reported that Republican Senate candidates have an early lead—such as in Iowa and Colorado—the momentum is now shifting to Democrat voters, McDonald said, in a detailed analysis that essentially said that Republicans have been voting earlier than Democrats but are seeing their numbers eroded by the escalating Democratic turnout. “The Republican sweep screaming in the headlines is overblown,” he wrote. “Senate control is up for grabs and Democrats have a decent chance to defy the polls. I expect that the election will be so close that we won’t know who won until all ballots are counted and the vote is certified several days following the election, not to mention highly probable run-off elections in Georgia and Louisiana.” Let’s go through some of the key states and compare what McDonald is adding to the mainstream media analysis, as typified in Associated Press reports. Iowa The AP says that both parties have increased their early voting turnout from 2010, with more Republicans voting early than Democrats—21,200 to 8,500. That boosts confidence in the GOP Senate nominee, Joni Ernst. McDonald said that as of last Thursday, there were 367,000 mail-in ballots that had been returned, leaving 111,000 still out there. Iowa also is an Election Day registration state, where people can decide to go vote at the last minute and do so. “There are two reasons why Iowa may end in overtime,” he said. “First, there are the unreturned mail ballots. The number of outstanding ballots will decrease by Election Day, but there will still likely be thousands of ballots in the mail when the vote is tabulated on election night. If the election margin is within a few thousand votes, the media may not call the election pending the disposition of these ballots.” In other words, Ernst’s perceived early lead is going to keep shrinking. Whether that enables Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley to win is an open question. But if the margin is under 1,000 votes, you can expect a tough legal fight over qualifying provisional ballots and possibly Election Day registrants. Colorado Colorado has a new voting system that the national media doesn’t quite understand. Before this year’s election, the state identified all legal eligible voters and encouraged them to register, and it also sent mail-in ballots to every registered voter. As in Iowa, Republicans have always been more organized than Democrats with getting their absentee ballot voters to mail them in. The AP and other have noted that registered Republicans have an 9-point lead over registered Democrats in returned ballots, concluding that Democratic Sen. Mark Udall is headed to defeat. McDonald, again, says not so fast, noting that independent voters—not affiliated with either party—are only just beginning to mail in their ballots. “It is common to see unaffiliated voters turn their ballots in later than party affiliated voters, who tend to be the most committed to their candidates and thus most comfortable about voting earliest,” he said. “At the very least, the margin between Democrats and Republicans will diminish as more unaffiliated voters return ballots.” Colorado also is an Election Day registration state, he noted. “Unregistered people who might take advantage of Election Day registration tend to be younger, persons of color, poorer, and less educated, i.e., Democrats.” Lousiana The bottom line in Louisiana is that the state’s U.S. Senate race is likely headed for a runoff election in the first week of January, 2015, because there’s a crowded field and nobody is expected to get more than 50 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, in early in-person voting, registered Democrats are turning out in much higher numbers than in previous federal cycles. “Registered Democrats are up 117 percent compared to 54 percent for Republicans,” McDonald said. “Those Democrats are not just old school Southern Democrats who have yet to change their party registration. African-American turnout is up 196 percent compared to Whites 64 percent.” The AP has reported that polls suggest Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu will need a huge African-American turnout to be re-elected, but national pundits often forget that she has twice won Senate elections in runoffs—in 1996 and 2002. Georgia Georgia voters don’t register by political party, but the state tracks voting by race. So far, the national media has reported that African-Americans have accounted for about a third of the early votes, which is much higher than the 2010 midterms and the 2012 presidential election. The conventional wisdom is that Democrat Michelle Nunn would need more support from communities of color to capture an open Senate seat over Republican David Perdue, and they point to a Tea Party wave in the state in 2010 and Mitt Romney beating President Obama by almost 8 points two years later. However, there is a wild card in this race—a Libertarian candidate who is getting a few percentage points in pre-election polls. “The unknown is how much Whiter will the Election Day electorate be? This is the crux of the polling,” McDonald said. “My best guess is that this election goes to a runoff.” That means there is a second U.S. Senate that might not be settled, in this case, until mid-December when Georgia would hold that special election. North Carolina This is a state where Democrats are seen as having gained an advantage in early voting—despite many new voter laws written by Republicans that have made the process more bureaucratic and are seen as barriers to first-time voters. As of last Saturday, 1.15 million residents had cast ballots by early in-person voting or by mail, and the number of registered Democrats was 15.7 percent higher than registered Republicans. That spread is likely to shrink, McDonald said, noting that there’s also a Libertarian in the U.S. Senate race drawing about 4 percent in polls. The bottom line here is the winner might not be known for days. That’s because apart from in-person voting at Tuesday’s polling places, the state will keep accepting mail-in ballots until Friday, McDonald noted. Also, there are still 35,000 absentee ballots that haven’t arrived, and the state has a history of disqualifying large numbers of provisional ballots—those given to people lacking the required forms of voter ID or who are not listed in poll books. “In 2010, North Carolina accepted 15,964 and rejected 10,563 provisional ballots,” McDonald wrote. “The number of rejected provisional ballots may be higher since the state no longer allows voters who cast a ballot outside of their home precinct.” In short, he predicts this Senate race will go into “overtime.” Related Stories Republicans Who Know Republicans Expect A Big Mess If GOP Wins Senate Majority Koch-Tied Group Tries to Trick Stoners Into Voting for Wisconsin Libertarian VIDEO: Robert Reich Warns that Republican Senate Control Means All-Out War on Women [Forwarded by the MyLeftBlogosphere news engine. Link to original post below:]
Posted on: Wed, 05 Nov 2014 10:20:08 +0000
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