GOVT. FORMATION IN J & K IS COMPLICATED 1. With historic - TopicsExpress



          

GOVT. FORMATION IN J & K IS COMPLICATED 1. With historic turnout in Assembly elections, people have voted for a popular government, and not for Presidents / Governors rule. Political parties should try their best to respect this mandate and form a popular government. 2. Despite heavy turnout, the mandate is fractured. PDP won the largest number of seats, but almost all of them in Kashmir valley. BJP won the largest vote-share, but no seats in either Kashmir valley or in Ladakh. NC and Congress are down, but not out. If a government is formed in a manner that either Jammu region or Kashmir valley is not adequately represented in the government, it runs the risk of being unpopular in large parts and among large numbers. It means govt must have support of BJP and of either PDP or NC. 3. No party has full majority, hence none of them can push for their own ideological agenda on contentious issues. Therefore, any working arrangement for govt formation has to be based on status quo on contentious issues, or very close to that. Thus BJP can at best ask for debate on Article 370, and not on its immediate abrogation. And BJP can at most agree on slight gestures on AFSPA, but not on its total repeal. 4. NC and Congress , even if they are part of a coalition, cant demand to lead the coalition. They do not have the seats or vote-share to demand this. 5. BJP and PDP coming together makes a simple majority. PDP, NC and Congress coming together also makes a simple majority. Any other formation is inherently unstable, as it depends on independents for majority. 5. On the ideological spectrum, BJP and PDP are on the two extremes. PDP is for more autonomy in J&K , while BJP is for more integration of J&K with mainstream India. Congress is for status quo , but will not combine with BJP for govt. formation. NC +BJP or NC+ PDP coming together will lead to the minimum ideological stress within govt. But both BJP and PDP have won mandate mainly by attacking NC for corruption and inefficiency. BJP also attacked PDP and NC for dynastic politics. And , in Kashmir one of the least expected things is NC and PDP coming together, despite the overt offer of support from NC for PDP. Reluctance of PDP to accept NC support is no surprise for anyone. Its really complicated. The likely outcomes, in descending order of probability , are : - coalition of PDP and BJP with rotational CM - coalition of BJP and NC, led by BJP - coalition of PDP and BJP, led by PDP - coalition of PDP and Congress supported from outside by NC - Presidents / Governors Rule - PDP govt supported by NC from outside - PDP , NC and Congress in coalition
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 19:31:41 +0000

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