Good Morning, After a mainly sunny and dry day yesterday, were anticipating there will be a few changes in the overall weather pattern during the next few days… It is rare during this time of year to see the weather two days in a row be strikingly similar, and this kind of theme will be our take-away point moving forward… The biggest issues well be confronted with involve forecasting rainfall intensity and temperatures between now and Friday night… Any time a wavy front, or a nearly stationary front sets up over the mid Atlantic states and the Ohio Valley, and weak impulses of low pressure slide along it, youre often confronted with challenges -- and this time will be no exception… Even though a warm front, or the leading edge of some milder air today will probably bring nothing more than a brief shower, especially for the morning and midday hours in the mid Atlantic region and then in New England this afternoon, this same front is expected to reverse its course tomorrow… With some sun this afternoon, most highs will be in the lower or middle 60s, and the temperature should actually be a few degrees above normal.. Tonight, the front is expected to stall and it will then press back to the south tomorrow (becoming a so-called back-door cool front) as a ridge of high pressure spreads across eastern Canada and into New England… The set-up is one which will cause the wind, albeit light, to shift around to the northeast and east… That is where the marine influence will be coming into play, and it will be just as much of a limiting factor on our temperatures Friday as any clouds or rain… Were already beginning to notice that Friday will be a day of remarkable temperature contrasts across the eastern half of the country, compliments of the Atlantic Ocean… But first, we should point out that there will be a ripple of low pressure which will slide along our nearly stationary front Thursday (tomorrow) night, and this should cause a period of rain… Earlier forecasts were calling for this rain to move in during the afternoon, but current indications are this will be pushed back to the nighttime, especially across southeastern New York and in New England.. Farther south, there may be a touch of rain or drizzle across the Delmarva Peninsula, in southeastern Pennsylvania or South Jersey before 6 p.m. -- but it appears that this general area will also see most of its rain develop after nightfall… Thats so-called Round One of our anticipated rain, which should end by very early Friday morning in most places… But, with the easterly flow persisting and plenty of clouds, it will be difficult for most cities and towns to get out of the 40s in the afternoon -- if it even does so north of the Mason-Dixon Line… Round Two is a batch of rain which should originate in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians on Friday afternoon, which will start to pivot to the northeast later in the day and on Friday night… This will lead to a decent soaking for many of us, because if there is one thing the global models are agreeing upon, it is that the first pulse of rain on Thursday night should produce around a tenth of an inch… But Round Two on Friday night will most likely be heavier, causing a general 0.25 - 0.50 before ending by early Saturday morning… As a wave of low pressure in the Great Lakes lifts northward into Canada Friday night, a so-called triple point wave (because of its formation at the junction of warm, cold and occluded fronts) will form along the mid Atlantic coast… So, just HOW QUICKLY this secondary wave develops should determine just how much rain well get on Friday night, and the temperature isnt expected to drop very much at all after midnight… The weekend will be getting off to a much milder start, with many temperatures reaching the 60s on Saturday afternoon… Then Sunday, we expect it to be somewhat cooler, and most places will be no higher than the 50s… The next significant weather feature appears to be headed our way late on Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it the next period of rain… Have a good day!!!
Posted on: Wed, 02 Apr 2014 08:14:11 +0000
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