Good Morning, Showers early today are still scattered about the mid-Atlantic states and in parts of the Northeast, and winds out of the south and southwest over the next couple of days will continue to pump moisture into the area… Yesterday’s cluster of rain with embedded thunder and lightning managed to persist well into the late-morning hours before finally weakening yesterday afternoon near the coast of southern New England, so portions of the New York City Metro Area wound up with well over an inch of rain over a period of four or five hours… In other locations, such as across southeastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland and Delaware, rain that occurred during the early-morning hours wasn’t as intense… And, some activity which managed to return in the afternoon wasn’t all that widespread… But, it was certainly more humid everywhere when comparing it with both days this past weekend — and this is a trend which will continue for the next few days… The next front that we’re going to be monitoring closely is one that will be ‘backing down’ from the north and east during the next 36 hours… Unlike many of those which move out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before reaching the East Coast, this particular one is going to be one of those so-called “back door fronts”, which will turn the winds around more towards the north and northeast after backing in… Technically, it is STILL spring (on the astronomical calendar, anyway), and the cooling influence of the ocean will be felt in many areas tomorrow… And, as is often the case, wherever it is still relatively warm and in the 80s tomorrow, then the effective cooling will just take place the following day… In this case, that’ll apply to much of South Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, Delaware and northeastern Maryland on Thursday… But in New York on Wednesday, the temperature may be no higher than the lower 70s in the afternoon with an easterly wind… On eastern Long Island, Cape Cod and in Boston, it’ll be mostly in the 60s… With the wind shift occurring early in the Northeast, some drier air is going to try push down from northern New England and eastern Canada… The dewpoint temperatures are forecasted to be in the lower (and not mid or upper 60s) on Wednesday afternoon, so it appears that any reduction in the humidity will be “subtle”… But, the fact that it will be cooler than today will keep it from being as uncomfortable… Thursday’s temperatures will also be impacted by the air getting ushered in by this back-door front… It now is looking like the day when the most significant “temperature jump” will be Friday… While the G.F.S. numerical temperature guidance is showing many high temperatures in the middle 80s on Thursday, it is the “outlier” when compared with other sources of model guidance… Therefore, we prefer to keep our forecasted temperatures in the 70s across much of the Northeast, while the mid-Atlantic region will either be in the upper-70s or lower-80s on Thursday afternoon… And yes, it’ll still be rather humid around here with a spotty shower or thunderstorm… As this ‘back door’ front lifts out to the north and east late Thursday and Thursday night, winds shifting back around to the south and southwest will put most places in a warm sector once again… That sets the stage for a warm and rather humid day on Friday, with a cool front located north and west of the Appalachians early on Friday morning… So, after getting limited shower/thunderstorm activity tomorrow and Thursday, this front that will be approaching on Friday afternoon and evening should cause an “uptick” in showers and thunderstorms before it pushes off the coast late Friday night and early on Saturday… We should already be discussing the potential for some heavy rainfall on Friday afternoon and early Friday night along the I-95 corridor and the coastal plain, although the areas which could be getting hit the hardest aren’t certain at this time… The moist air mass that will be with us this entire week should be getting lifted by this front, and the results could include drenching downpours… We’re going to still allow for a spotty shower early on Saturday along the coast (and in some of the big cities, too), but there’s a consensus starting to build amongst these global models which are implying that a ridge of high pressure will be able to ‘make a clean sweep’ for the balance of the upcoming weekend — or, it will “scour out the moisture”, and most of Saturday/Sunday will offer a good deal of sunshine with lowering humidity… Have a good day!!
Posted on: Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:49:02 +0000
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