I talked about the power of China vs that of USA and I think the people with a shallow understanding of geopolitics have jumped on me like Vera Sidika on the bleaching oil. In 1958, Russia put the Sputnik on to space and US decline was prophesised. In 1973 during the oil embargo initiated by OPEC to punish the US for supporting Israel, US decline was prophesised. In the 1980s during the Reagan transition, US decline was prophesised. People are overenthusiastic about US decline without looking at the facts. The predictions rely on global psychology but not the reality. Goldman Sachs predict that Chinas economy will surpass that of the US by 2030. Might never happen because Goldman Sachs projections are kind of linear. It is not a zero-sum game. The projections are not looking at per-capita income in US vs China. US population is more sophisticated and by decades ahead of that of China where raw poverty is still evident. And the projections seems to be one dimensional. We are looking at GDP vs GDP and nothing is being mentioned about military power and soft power (media and the like). When you say power is shifting East, are you aware that Japan, South Korea and India all needs US power as an insurance against the rise of China. US has more influence East than China. China still has almost half a century to neutralise US power. US military is currently properly deployed in over 150 countries. Where is China here? How many aircraft carriers and drones does China have? Again power is multi-pronged. There are issues like drug trades, pandemics and financial scandals where nobody has absolute power over. US soft power (hollywood, CNN, hip hop and US culture) is far more powerful than Chinese power.
Posted on: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:39:14 +0000
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