MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 231403Z - 231500Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE ONGOING SMALL QLCS APPROACHING THE WEST SIDE OF MOBILE WILL BE ADVANCING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG SFC WINDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...STORM MOTION ON THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING...SMALL QLCS APPROACHING MOBILE IS AROUND 50 KT. REGARDLESS...RADIAL VELOCITIES AT THE LOWEST TILT FROM KMOB CONTINUE TO DECREASE...IMPLYING A DECREASE IN SFC GUSTS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEPART HIGHER PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RELEGATED TO SERN MS/SERN LA. WITH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW COMPONENT PER VWP DATA AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...INFLOW SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS. ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/23/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...
Posted on: Sun, 23 Mar 2014 14:16:08 +0000
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