Many, many thanks to Ray Bergmann who analysed and explained this translated article. vineyardsaker.blogspot.au/ has published this translation (below) of an article from worldcrisis.ru that the Saker says is the most complete explanation of the Kremlins policy. After a presentation of objectives and problems in attaining them, there is an explanation that there is a time-line of things to be accomplished to overcome vulnerabilities during May before there is any assurance that things will turn out in Moscows favour. It is pertinent that this information has only been given out at the end of May when the groundwork for these important accomplishments has already been done! Then is the appropriate time for the Kremlin to reveal why it has procrastinated in order to ensure it will win out from the Ukrainian situation, and why it matters. The time-line of vulnerabilities to be worked on during May were: Gas contract with China (May 21 signed!), Oil contract with Iran in summer (May-June), Elections to the European Parliament resulting in a different composition which will be much easier to work with (May 25), Gas contract signed with China so newly elected European deputies will be more amenable to South Stream, Collection of all relevant documents/permits for construction of South Stream (May), Transition to settlements in rubles for energy, Transition to quoting prices in rubles for energy for trading in rubles on the Russian markets with our own payment system, Preparation of import substitution or improvement of our work with Asian suppliers. Now add interesting initiatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which is not sitting idly by with its hands folded. For example, Vice Minister Karasin was in Doha on May 6 and met with all the Qatari elite. The results, in my opinion, turned out to be shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the convincing and coherent regional policy of the Russian Federation, which is very unexpected for a country that is not just a U.S. ally and the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the Middle East and a 100% opponent of the Russian Federation in Syria. But the casket (ларчик) has simply opened: the fact is that American dreams of filling the whole world with cheap gas are a death sentence for Qatar and its elite. Without ultra-high gas prices, Qatar does not just lose any hope for regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer something of interest: At the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating the coordination of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF), the next summit of which (thats a coincidence!) will be held in Qatar. The Forum of Gas Exporting Countries is an organization which includes countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters, and which the Kremlin, for a long time but without success, the Kremlin tried to turn into the gas analogue of OPEC. It is possible that now is the right hour for a potential gas cartel. First, the three major gas exporter: Russia, Qatar and Iran have very similar interests and should be able to work on the same side in order to share and take over the gills of the LNG market and pipeline gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a reduced format (only the Russian Federation, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of the worlds gas reserves and have significant opportunities to strongly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project would involve a lot of problems and it will meet opposition, no one gives a guarantee that everything will work, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively seeking opportunities for more strategic advantages in the fight against the United States. The article explains that only after the above preparations have been achieved can they work constructively on the problems directly related to Ukraine: the denazification of Kiev, and the inevitable Hunger and Hyperinflation which will dramatically change the balance of power. The Ukrainian economy is finished... No one will give money to the junta, not even from the IMF, which promised something around $17 billion ... (but) if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev is not to receive a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and correct the minds of the “generous” (shchirykh) Ukrainians: they will surely not come to love Russia, but ... (they will) begin to remember the Yanukovych period as sweet, unattainable dream. The article predicts that then there will be inevitable chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with low intensity civil war ... Moreover, in the context of total economic collapse, for the miners, metal workers and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them ... They will have to participate in one form or another, in the political and economic problems of New Russia. And likely they will have to participate in arms. At the same time, the-junta-named-Poroshenko, foisted (on the country) by the European Union, will have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. Already, the new European Commission, which needs peace in the east and stable gas transit, will be pushing Poroshenko in this direction. Poroshenko will also be pushed in the same direction by social upheavals caused by Colonel Hunger and Hyperinflation the Saboteur. All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something appropriate to the interests of the Russian Federation. It is precisely this scenario that the United States is attempting to avoid, and it is because of this that the United States has serious reasons to accelerate the translation of the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and massive bloodshed. The article then calculates that the time required to resolve foreign policy problems in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, untethering from the dollar, import substitution, etc. (very roughly) can come to the conclusion that you need somewhere 5-9 months (that same December, for which Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions to Ukrainian and other issues to the maximum advantage of Russia. During this period, you must provide at least for the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (i.e., support for the DNR, LNR, but it is not necessary to take Kiev too fast in order not to create unnecessary additional problems) and ideally, combined with the civil war, prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like 2 +4 format, i.e., Poroshenko + Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA. Then, as The final touch the article points out that In recent months, the U.S. has slowed down the work of its printing press, reducing the pump-priming (this especially simplifies the formulation) from 85 to 55 billion dollars a month. Very many expect (e.g. reuters/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427), that the machine will turn off completely by the end of this year. Again, in that same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, though it is the main international currency, cannot be printed endlessly - it is impossible. According to various estimates, the United States has almost entirely used up the resource strength of the dollar, which allowed them to do the naughty with the (financial) machine. Moreover, the corollary and inevitable effect of such tricks is reducing rates on U.S. bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington to pay less for its debts, but, on the other hand, is actually choking the entire U.S. pension and insurance system that is built on the expectation of very different returns from their portfolios bonds. Roughly speaking, by the end of the year, the U.S. will have a choice between to blowing up their social system in order to keep on printing, or greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve any chance of stability at home. Judging by the reduction in the amount of dollars being thrown into the system, Washington has decided that preventing an explosion is more important than its foreign policy ambitions. Then follow the predictions: - America will try by all means to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine, in order to weaken Russia and put the whole European market under its sway before it needs to shut down its printing presses. - The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute to the chronic phase - civil war plus sluggish negotiations amid the economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time to create favorable conditions for the transition to the sharp confrontation with the United States - from the work on untethering from the dollar with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the EEC etc. - Complete end to the crisis in December 2014, possibly earlier if U.S. desists from trying to exacerbate the hostilities. - And if it does not desist? - Then ... a big war ... a war for resources, because shale boom was an ordinary bubble. Above are the essentials of the article. Below is the full translation of опубликовал Сухов боец красной армии, worldcrisis.ru 30 Май 22:19
Posted on: Tue, 03 Jun 2014 16:49:50 +0000
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