NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD INTO NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301900Z - 302100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR OVER WRN SD...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ALL AREAS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN SD INTO N CNTRL NEB...WITH NRN PORTIONS DRIFTING SWD DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ND. S OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S F RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SWD INTO WRN NEB WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS DEVELOPING. THE BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...A FEW PERHAPS OVER 2.00" DIAMETER. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 19:14:20 +0000
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