New Chinese Trade Stats ‘Paint A Grim Picture’ : Source: Business Insider:– BEIJING (Reuters) – China‘s imports fell unexpectedly in November while export growth slowed, adding to concerns the world’s second-largest economy could be facing a sharper slowdown and adding pressure on policymakers to ramp up stimulus measures. Exports rose 4.7 percent in November from a year earlier, while imports dropped 6.7 percent – the sharpest decline since March, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Monday. That left the country with a record trade surplus of $54.5 billion for the month, which analysts say could increase upward pressure on the yuan even as exporters are already struggling. Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to grow 8.2 percent, a 3.9 percent rise in imports and a trade surplus of $43.5 billion, all slowing from October. “Despite another record trade surplus, the underlying details paint a grim picture with slower export growth and a contraction in commodity imports in volume terms,” said Andy Ji, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Singapore. Exports have been the lone bright spot for China‘s economy in the last few months, perhaps helping to offset soft domestic demand, but there are doubts about the accuracy of the official numbers amid signs of a resurgence of speculative currency flows through inflated trade receipts. Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, said over-reporting in exports may have been curbed in November, which contributed to weak exports along with base effects. But he added the import contraction was “shocking”, reflecting not only lower commodity prices but poor domestic demand. “This means that pressure will rise on the government to do more to stimulate growth,” he said. “We expect a reserve requirement ratio cut in December, introduction of reverse repos this week, and another (interest) rate cut in the first quarter. The yuan should rise further on the data.” After saying for months that China does not need any big economic stimulus, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised financial markets by lowering rates on Nov. 21 to shore up growth and help firms pay off mountains of debt. The government is due to release data on factory output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales later this week. Analysts see more policy moves in coming months if the economy continues to stumble, with many expecting both more rate cuts and reductions in banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR). Sources familiar with China‘s policy-making said leaders are prepared to lower rates again and loosen lending curbs on concerns that falling prices could cause a spike in bad loans, business failures and job losses. Annual growth in the world’s second-largest economy slowed to 7.3 percent in the third quarter – the weakest since the height of the global financial crisis – as the sagging housing market and tighter credit conditions weigh on the broader economy. (Reporting by China economics team; Editing by Kim Coghill) Join the conversation about this story » Continue Reading….. ift.tt/1u71SDA
Posted on: Mon, 08 Dec 2014 04:46:53 +0000
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