Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2014 Dec 26 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2248 (S21E41, Dao/beta-gamma)and 2249 (S12W41, Dai/beta-gamma) both produced low level C-class activity. The largest flare was a C4 at 25/1211 UTC from Region 2248. New flux emergence was observed on the western side of Region 2248. Region 2249 continued to exhibit growth through the period as well. New Region 2250 (N08W22, Bxo/beta) was numbered today. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for day one (26 Dec). Solar activity is likely to be low on days two and three (27-28 Dec) with a slight chance for M-class flaring. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (26-28 Dec) with a chance of reaching high levels after day 2 (27 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) on all three days (26-28 Dec) of the forecast period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Total field ranged from 5 nT to 10 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward reaching a maximum of -9 nT between 25/1542 UTC and 26/0433 UTC. Solar wind speeds ranged from 405 km/s to 541 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to continue to be slightly enhanced until the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on 27 Dec. Disturbed conditions are expected to last through 28 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to a prolonged period of negative Bz. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels until the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS on day two (27 Dec). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two through three (27-28 Dec) with isolated active periods possible.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 20:03:32 +0000
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