Putin’s War This war is not about Ukraine. This war is about Putin’s Russia. Ukraine is a battlefield. No doubt, Putin has plenty of reasons to punish Ukraine – his own reasons. Ukrainian Crimea was an easy target and just a halfway towards his ultimate goal – the West. President Putin enjoys his victory. The Russians overwhelmingly celebrate and support their national leader. Show must go on! Who is next on Putin’s roadmap? Most probably he will try to repeat the same scenario in the Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine. It may be Moldova – Transnistria is even easier target, than Crimea. Who is next then? One of the Baltic States? Impossible? Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are NATO members and they are protected by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Well, the Washington Treaty provides strong security guaranties, nothing to compare with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, when Russia, USA and UK assured Ukraine to give up its third world largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for guaranties against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. Has this stopped Russia?!! Let’s imagine “impossible”: Friday afternoon, when most of NATO staff is commuting toward weekend destination, a kind of the Crimean peaceful scenario begins in, let’s say, Narva (88% of Russians). No shooting! Will it be considered as the military aggression? If yes, how much time will it take for NATO to react? What kind of reaction? Game over!
Posted on: Wed, 26 Mar 2014 08:12:01 +0000
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