.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 21:34:33 +0000
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