Sept 25thSorry for the lack of commentaries lately…but finally something to chat about.ERCOT Cash – well as Texas experienced 95+ degrees in late September, we experienced quite volatile power prices. September started off screaming with price cap prints on the 3rd , loads backed off and DAM prices incentivized generation procurement. ERCOT started experiencing forced outages in solid fuel generation creating some anxiety….all the while H to N flows have been increasing as temperatures stayed rather high in Houston, relative to the North. Yesterday those flows came to a head, as a few generation outages (and I suspect a line outage – not in Houston) propelled Houston pricing over $1000.00 for several periods – clearing the day around $275.00.Today, more generation within Houston was procured therefore suppressing any further HUGE price excursions. ERCOT Forwards – have stabilized since they RIPPED higher during the first weeks of September. Slight profit taking as move some of the heater lower, but not much. With the lead up to and realization of yesterday’s Houston pricing, H-Town basis is STRONGER…Remember heat rate rocked since the PUCT signaled a move toward Hogan’s Option B+ vs. a capacity market for resource adequacy.NG - Pretty simple here – range bound between $3.30 and $3.70 and I know that is a 15% range – BUT… much higher and we bring on more NG, any lower we buy demand from coal…WEATHER is the key for now – with this I think lower but not much lower… EIA tomorrow mid 70s Bcf Build. Last year 80 build and 5 year average 76 build…CL- over the last several weeks Middle East tensions have eased tremendously – therefore crude lost its bid. Unless, we have a severe supply shock, I think we tick lower – watch the USD…Economy – JP Morgan is facing $11 Billion in additional fines (on top of the $920 Million fine last week for the “London Whale” stuff) and the stock is up 2.75% today – ENOUGH SAID.online.wsj/article/SB10001424052702303796404579097503061835742.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStoriesBITCOIN - $135.80NG – $3.493Crude - $102.66SP500 – 1692.77US 10-Yr – 2.634 --- Yikes coming down from 2.90 almost 10% from highs.Gold – 1334.00**near market close
Posted on: Thu, 26 Sep 2013 00:45:27 +0000
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