Some may be skeptical at this micro detail I am presenting - particularly when I am generally such a big picture analyst, but the micro detail does matter from time to time, and is just as important as Russian Troops in East Ukraine, and US Bank Sanctions - and everyone should take note IMO. You will have read of my view that we just may have bottomed, and WILL LIKELY NOT fall below $1,180 on this particular cycle, so this is one of the very good reasons why not, which I have not yet elucidated on. Steidelmayer is considered one of the great traders and his methods are tried and proven to the extent that the CME bought his intellectual property (analysis techniques) and sells it with their data feed. Peter Steidelmayer will tell you that for a market to move successfully beyond a trading range (in the case of Gold $1,174), the move must originate from the Point of Control (POC, the point of predominant transaction volume) after a consolidation around that point prior to the impulsive move from that exact price point (in this case in Gold $1,243). You will see clearly from the graphic that on the way down we did not achieve this as the move stared from $1,251 and proceeded straight through the POC and headed down to the lower part of that range at $1,234. We attempted a bounce but it failed to satisfy the rules. The invalid move was observed in the US Futures market session, and price since that point has never successfully returned to that $1,243.7 level as it should have if the move was valid for a crossing of $1,174. When these things happen, Peter Steidelmayer will tell you that the likely outcome will be a return to $1,243 (from the bottom of the range UP again), to perform the correct price consolidation before a valid vertical move can proceed. I may be wrong, but all these factors are saying that after a slight push lower on Monday we head back UP in the lead up to 8am EST in New York in advance of the COMEX session, and probably continue that move back up as all of the Margin call work was done in New York on Friday.
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 11:13:50 +0000
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