Some thoughts on the implications of Civil Disobedience... For it to succeed as a strategy, it would require far more people than several thousand (or several lakhs, for that matter) in a country of 180 million. Too, it would require the movement to be sufficiently long enough in terms of duration, for it to impact upon the oppressive rules that it is designed to bring tumbling down. Currently, the biggest domestic contributor (in terms of manpower, if not outright funds) towards taxes is the salaried class; most of whom have their taxes deducted at source. Other important tax revenues are GST from the sale and purchase of various commodities - also deducted at source. Utilities are next; gas, electricity, water bills. Of course, the GoP holds the strings to coerce payment of these utilities. Dont pay for a month or so, and itll turn off the tap / valve / meter. Customs and import duties also contribute. Will an importer spending millions of rupees, risk confiscation of his goods for refusing to pay the requisite duties? Time will tell. In my view then, this movement doesnt make a great deal of sense, from the fiscal viewpoint in the DOMESTIC sense of the word. What it DOES represent is a tangential tilt of thinking. By using the very phrase civil disobedience, IK has clearly upped the ante on the international front. This is a phrase which the west can identify with (as is evinced by the huge amount of attention this announcement has received in the international media), which the IMF and WB will find very disconcerting, and which will ratchet up a good deal of fiscal pressure on the GoP from foreign sources other than the people in Pakistan who will actually be able to implement this stratagem (NOT a very large number, I imagine). Most of our poor people dont give the slightest @#$% about the state of the stock market, or the valuation of the dollar against the rupee, or our foreign currency reserves for the simple reason that they dont affect them directly. Either that, or theyre blissfully unaware about the underlying linkages of these aspects with their perceived financial health. Ask a labourer about how much he knows - or cares - about the current stock market tailspin (a drop of 4.5% in the past week; the biggest in five years), and find out for yourself. A financial scorched earth policy thus, WILL most likely affect the fat cats and uber-rich and hyper-affluent more than they will the common man. And we all know that big money is what propels big politics and big upheavals. Whether this game turn will induce a tipping point or not though, is anyones guess. I dont have a crystal ball to peer into the future. Ive seen enough dogmatism at work in the machinations of Big Government. And then again, Im sufficiently cynical of self-styled miracle-workers; to believe their thunderous voices, too much. Tau phir...kinney kinney jaana aey Billo de ghar? :)
Posted on: Mon, 18 Aug 2014 07:44:10 +0000
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