Steve signing in at 8:37 AM. Fair skies with some high clouds across the 4 county area this morning, temperatures ranging from 50° at Brindletown and Granite Falls to 55° at Valdese. Today should be sunny to partly sunny with high clouds possibly thickening a bit during the afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80°. Clouds thicken and low tonight as a back door front and disturbance approach the area. The front should stay to our north Friday as the disturbance rides eastward along it through Virginia. We should see some sun Friday but there will be an increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses and the front gets closer. Highs Friday should be mid to upper 70s, a little cooler than today due to the cloud cover. As the front sags southward Friday night and Saturday showers and thunderstorms should become more widespread. By Saturday the front should be in the area, continuing to drift southward. Still temperatures are likely to be in the high 70s Saturday. By Sunday, though, it looks like the front will be south of us, allowing a cool air wedge to set up. Rain Sunday may be steadier and less showery and temperatures will probably stay in the mid 60s all day. By Sunday night, another, stronger cold front will be taking shape over the Mississippi Valley well to our west. South and southwest winds ahead of this front are likely to break down the wedge Monday but with Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming northward, we are likely to see more scattered showers during the day into Monday night. A thunderstorm or two is possible also. Highs Monday could rebound into the 70s depending on how quickly the cool air wedge breaks down. Tuesday is the day of concern. Wind shear ahead of the approaching front looks like it will be off the charts, exceeding 60 mph 5000 feet above ground level. There will be a good deal of turning of the wind with height. Im not seeing a lot of instability yet and lapse rates (temperature falls with height) are not that impressive. Also the long range models are not in agreement with the timing of the frontal passage and that will have a big impact on our chances for severe thunderstorms. Well get a better picture of what kind of weather event we can expect by the weekend when the short-range models kick in and offer their input. Right now it looks like a line of low-topped thunderstorms may cross the area ahead of the front, possibly Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially if the line fractures. The greatest threat of severe storms would occur if this line actually moves across the area during the afternoon but right now, that is far from being a certainty. Well continue to monitor and provide updates as we get closer to the event and receive more precise forecast information. Behind the front on Wednesday, temperatures are likely to be much cooler. Skies may be a little slow to clear out, especially in the mountains, with northwest flow setting up.
Posted on: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 12:58:46 +0000
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