THANKSGIVING TRAVEL UPDATE: The 00Z model suite has come in... and - TopicsExpress



          

THANKSGIVING TRAVEL UPDATE: The 00Z model suite has come in... and there are no significant changes other than the GFS which takes the storm out to sea... but at this time... with other models coming into better agreement... the GFS which is lousy with East Coast storms until about 4 days out is an outlier at this point in the game. I fully expect the GFS to fall into line with the other models as we go through this weekend. Tuesday, as weve said before, is likely going to feature travel headaches across the Southeast U.S... but nothing locally until later on in the afternoon and evening. If you are headed south & west of the area on Tuesday, you need to prepare for wet conditions. Wednesday is becoming clearer and clearer... with the EURO... CANADIAN... UKMET... coming into line with a scenario that turns the low up the coast... the GFS and NAVGEM remain off board from this solution and instead take it out to sea... this is a classic feedback problem on the GFS. I am becoming slightly more confident as we continue to near this event... FORTUNATELY for those of you traveling locally... model guidance is starting to converge on a scenario that brings the most significant precipitation (MAINLY in the form of rain) to the area during the overnight hours Tuesday into early on Wednesday. Then the precipitation exits the region by midday Wednesday... if not even earlier than that. Timing seems to be up in the air... as does the rain/snow line, as is typical with these types of storms. EARLIER TODAY I posted maps that keeps the rain/snow line NORTH AND WEST of the Northern Virginia area... but obviously as many of you will be traveling outside the region, this storm has significant implications on travel. NOW a new wrinkle emerges in the game... for later in the day on Wednesday and overnight... especially to the south... as precipitation hangs back over North Carolina and the southern Appalachians... this potentially opens the door for more frozen precipitation over that part of the country. Something to keep in mind if you are headed in that direction for your holiday weekend. I will post another update tomorrow afternoon. CONFIDENCE: Tuesday - 8/10: very high at this point, as run to run consistency is very strong... however, rain may spread further north depending on how fast the storm moves out of Texas. Wednesday - 6/10: rain/snow line is still a concern, as always with these types of storms. Timing becoming clearer, but not quite confident in exactly when the majority of impacts will be felt. Stay tuned...
Posted on: Sat, 23 Nov 2013 06:34:09 +0000

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