Terrific Tuesday #Forex Update From your Forex Headmaster, Dr. Richard K. Boxall Being a fundamentalist, I said: Watch the #EURHUF, #GBPZAR, #EURZAR, #USDZAR, #EURTRY & #EURCHF which are all looking to breakout into potential good LONGS (BUYS) Today there is alot of fundamental news around these pairs. This is what our technical expert Mr. John Raw said The ZAR pairs appear to have double bottomed and are all pushing up again. I am expecting ABC ups now although the hour trend is still short on EURZAR it too is moving up to change its trend.EURHUF has also as of this morning broken out into zone ! and it now trending long..EURSEK had a pull back but is very much in a long trend since 20th already.Supported now by 50 ma.EURTRY is alao trending long as of this morning. In the news: The rand was on the back foot against the dollar early on Tuesday, weakening within the previous days range as investors treaded cautiously before the release of key GDP data. Statistics South Africa will put out third-quarter economic growth numbers at 11:30, and will also rebase the reference year to 2010 and benchmark the data with new information. The exercise will see a revision of GDP numbers from 2002. Economists in a Reuters poll have forecast that economic growth picked up in the third quarter, to 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.6% in Q2. The rand traded at R11.0435 to the dollar at 08:13, off a R11.0160 close in New York on Monday. An upbeat GDP number should encourage the rand back to R10.90 levels tested in the last two sessions. Dealers said they preferred buying dollar dips towards R10.85. The benchmark 2026 bond came off 2014 highs hit on Friday, with the yield rising 4.5 basis points to 7.785% so far this session. The Treasury is holding a sale of 2031, 2032 and 2044 bonds at a weekly auction. Results are due just after 11:00. Also on the data calendar in this session, is the South African Reserve Banks leading business cycle indicator at 09:00, and the fourth quarter business confidence index from Rand Merchant Bank at 12:00. In the rest of the world: Yesterday showed how good old fashioned support and resistance levels should always be closely watched as EURUSD bounced off the 1.2360 level for the second time of the month. #EURUSD remains a well sold currency pair (even over half of FxPro’s client positions are short according to our dashboard, at the time of writing) and is susceptible to squeezes higher so when you get a piece of data like Germany’s better than expected Ifo business climate and last week’s ZEW, you can see the Euro receive a bit of a bid. This morning we’ve already seen German GDP released in line at 1.2%, so no hocks to the downside, but doesn’t seem quite enough to challenge the longer term downtrend for EURUSD which still looks very much in place unless we see a concerted move back above the 1.2600 level. From the US today we see GDP data and consumer confidence which are just two of many data releases packed in ahead of North America’s shortened week as they shut up shop on Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving. We’ve seen the GDP data before in the first reading which is due to be revised a little lower, so the focus is likely to be more on the consumer confidence, expected to rise to a seven year high to 96.0, up from 94.5. This has the potential to give USD yet another leg higher, in particular against the low yielders like JPY, EUR and SEK. Dont miss out! Subscribe here to receive regular market updates! - eepurl/9dcyn Happy Trading ! Richard Boxall
Posted on: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 09:37:53 +0000
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