The Greek parliaments rejection of Stavros Dimas as President is more than a loss for Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. By Greeces constitution, parliament must now be dissolved and snap elections held by January 25. Samarass sour gamble now threatens to re-open healing wounds in the Eurozone, either by pushing Greeces fulfillment of bailout conditionality further away or by handing radical parties control of their first EU state. Greeces traditional parties of the right and left, New Democracy (ND) and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), respectively, were pushed together into an unprecedented grand coalition in 2012 after major gains were made by populist anti-EU parties. While the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn received the most media attention, it was a radical leftist party, SYRIZA, that posed the biggest challenge to Greeces European path, taking the second-highest vote share at 26.9%. As in other hard-hit EU states, the financial crisis and subsequent failure of the EU and related institutions, such as the Eurozone, to deliver on expected prosperity is reshaping politics in Greece, with traditional rivals like ND and PASOK now united in defense of European integration against populist and previously-marginal parties like SYRIZA and Golden Dawn. Current polling now places SYRIZA on track to receive the most votes in Januarys elections. SYRIZAs appeal stems from their promise to put an instant stop to painful austerity measures implemented by previous governments to satisfy EU-IMF conditionality and receive much-needed bailout funds. The current ND-PASOK government has made renegotiating the terms of the agreement a part of their platform as well, but SYRIZA would go a step farther by threatening a default and removing Greece from the Eurozone. No state which has adopted the Euro has exited the common currency yet, and doing so would bring unknown, but likely immense, economic pain to both Greece and Europe. However, despite a possible first-place finish, SYRIZA would not be able to form a government on its own. Intense coalition-building negotiations would need to be undertaken for SYRIZA to gain the confidence of enough parties to form a parliamentary majority, and rightist anti-EU parties like Golden Dawn can be counted out due to otherwise-complete ideological opposition. Were a traditional party like ND or PASOK to join with SYRIZA, both would place themselves at considerable risk: they would together share the burden of poor government results and alienate continental allies. Furthermore, SYRIZA may still be unready for prime-time: populist parties across the continent have gained vote share by doggedly criticizing the Euro-establishment, but actual leadership requires compromise and tamping down expectations. Whether SYRIZA can make a real bid for Greek leadership this time remains to be seen, but the economic pain caused by renewed Greek political uncertainty is already being felt: Greeces Finance Ministry has abandoned its plans to negotiate an early end to the bailout and will be requesting more time past Februarys scheduled end date as EU/IMF inspectors put off their visits until a new government can be sworn in. While Brussels will be loathe to legitimize the demands of populist parties, it is increasingly forced to consider whether undermining its prior demands and relaxing Greeces economic strictures could be in the long-term interests of the continental bloc.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 03:42:37 +0000
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