The US demands that Russia meet all its obligations, including debts, while denying to Russia access to West-controlled markets of capital and refinancing; the US demands Russias complete withdrawal in Ukraine; Russias consent not to be left any more to its own instincts, and cessation of Russias own info efforts to win the hearts and minds; these conditions are not final; conditions over Crimea and other issues would then follow once Russia surrenders over Ukraine to the US and NATO. The specific demands (articles of surrender) to Russia over Ukraine have been made public by Jason Bordoff, a (former) Obama adviser on energy and Carlos Pascual, a former US Ambassador to Ukraine who is/was also Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs with the State Departments Energy Resources Bureau: The elements of a deal are well known. Russia needs to take its troops out of Ukraine, stop all support for the insurgency in Ukraine, and cease its media battle against the Ukrainian people and state. Ukraine must devolve authority to local governments and ensure that language and culture are not used as a personal referendum on who is a Ukrainian citizen. Russia must sell gas to all parties to its west on market terms. Ukraine must transit gas and pay its bills for the gas it consumes. All parties must accept a massive presence by the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe to monitor the Russia-Ukraine border and developments on ground in Ukraine. The minute one observer is jailed or mistreated, the deal is off. Some will try to try to solve Crimeas future in this package. That is too complicated and must be deferred. In exchange for its retreat from Ukraine, Russia will receive access to capital and to the technology to develop its energy resources. Ukraine must rise to implement the economic reforms that will win the confidence of international donors and investors and make its economy competitive. Failure to grab this moment would be tragic. Russias alternative is a deepening economic crisis that could lead to internal protest. Expect President Putin to respond with an iron hand that entrenches his authoritarian control on politics and economics. Ukraines alternative is a continued freefall as the war in the east drains its coffers and makes economic reform seemingly insurmountable. Sanctions are a policy tool to create opportunities for better outcomes. The collapse in international oil prices has turned that tool into an opportunity that can restore an economic livelihood to Russia and Ukraine. Skeptics will argue that Russia simply wants a Ukrainian frozen conflict, even if it abuts against Russias own internal economic collapse. But perhaps this is the moment to test President Putins interest in a better future for his citizens. For Russia and Ukraine, there are only upsides to try. cnbc/id/102280963?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=102280963#.
Posted on: Thu, 18 Dec 2014 18:36:34 +0000
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