Very interesting and informative post Brian Fagan. Climate - TopicsExpress



          

Very interesting and informative post Brian Fagan. Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh. The impacts of higher temperatures, more variable precipitation, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise are already felt in Bangladesh and will continue to intensify. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extreme events, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. It is predicted that climate change could have devastating impact on agriculture. Agriculture is a key economic driver in Bangladesh, accounting for nearly 20 percent of the GDP and 65 percent of the labor force. The performance of this sector has considerable influence on overall growth, the trade balance, and the level and structure of poverty and malnutrition. Moreover, much of the rural population, especially the poor, is reliant on the agriculture as a critical source of livelihoods and employment. The impacts of climate change could affect agriculture in Bangladesh in many ways: - The predicted sea-level rise will threaten valuable coastal agricultural land, particularly in low-lying areas. - Biodiversity would be reduced in some of the most fragile environments, such as Sundarbans and tropical forests. - Climate unpredictability will make planning of farm operations more difficult. The effects of these impacts will threaten food security for the most vulnerable people of Bangladesh. The country’s agriculture sector is already under stress from lack of productivity and population growth. Any further attempt to increase productivity will likely to add pressure to available land and water resources. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of Bangladesh and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people. Various models predict the nations vulnerability. Bangladesh is the most vulnerable nation due to global climate change in the world according to German Watch’s Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) of 2011. This is based on the analysis of impacts of major climate events that occurred around the world in the twenty year period since 1990. The reasons are complex and extremely intertwined. Located at the bottom of the mighty GBM river system (Ganges, Brahmaputra and the Meghna) there are a total of 57 trans-boundary rivers coming down to it; 54 from neighbouring India and 3 from Myanmar. The country which has no control of the water flow and volume drains to the Bay of Bengal over 90% of the total run-off generated annually. Coupled with the high level of widespread povertyand increasing population density, limited adaptive capacity and poorly funded, ineffective local governance has made the region one of the most adversely affected in the planet. There are an estimated one thousand people in each square kilometre with the national population increasing by 2 million people each year. By 2020, anywhere from 500- 750 million people are projected to be affected by water availability due to climate change around the world. Low-lying coastal regions, such as Bangladesh are vulnerable to the Sea level rise and increased occurrence of intense, extreme weather conditions such as the cyclones from 2007–2009. In most countries such as Bangladesh, yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced to 50% by 2020. And for a country with increasing population and hunger, this will have an extremely adverse effect on food security. Although effects of climate change are highly variable, by 2030, South Asia could lose 10% of rice and maize yields, while neighbouring states like Pakistan could experience a 50% reduction in crop yield. As a result of all this, Bangladesh would need to prepare for long term adaptation, which could be as drastic as changed sowing dates due to seasonal variations, introducing different varieties and species, to practicing novel water supply and irrigation systems. In essence, we have to identify all present vulnerabilities and future opportunities, adjusting priorities, at times even changing commodity and trade policies in the agricultural sector while promoting training and education throughout the masses in all possible sphere. Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 09:25:40 +0000

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