WTPA41 PHFO 192048 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION - TopicsExpress



          

WTPA41 PHFO 192048 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032013 1100 AM HST MON AUG 19 2013 INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEALED THAT THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI HAWAII HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER SUFFICIENTLY LONG FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14KT...WITH THE DEPRESSION BEING DRIVEN WESTWARD BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT. WITH THIS JUXTAPOSITION IMPARTING SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR...IT IS SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO REMAIN LOCKED ON TO THE CENTER FOR AS LONG AS IT HAS. SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC FEATURES RETROGRADE IN TANDEM WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN 36 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY 48 HOURS. IF THE SHEAR WERE TO WEAKEN...HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 18.3N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.8N 177.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 179.5E 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.3N 176.7E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 19 Aug 2013 20:48:33 +0000

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