Well here we are again Ladies and Gents, Cup day. The Biggest betting Day in Australia. Ive said it a few times this week already, that i believe this field is the Best quality field I have ever seen assembled for the great race. The Day overall is very tough with large fields and plenty of mixed formlines. Its a 10 Race card starting at the early 10:20, so if you are lucky enough like me to have the day off, dont sleep in or you will miss Race 1. The Flemington track is rated at a Dead 4 but expect that to improve throughout the day with the fine weather expected. Race 1: As is always the way on Cup Day we kick off the day with a 1000m dash down the straight for the 2yos. Only 2 of the field of 13 have had a start and both didnt show a great deal to go off. Looking towards breeding and any trials and although not overly keen on having a good go at anything, its cup day so have to have a nibble. Im Looking towards 4, House of Hingis who ran 2nd in a trial and showed speed. Italian Storm who ran a very good trial in Sydney, Kristofferson who is a half sister to the very smart Fast n Rocking, and Oakleigh Girl who also showed plenty of speed in her trial and is out of a G1 winning Mare. But the best guide is to watch for any betting moves. Selections: 7, 9, 5, 4 Race 2: A Full field of 16 & 4 Emergencies here in this 1700m Mares race. Its a tough tough race as Mares races always are however Im leaning to Endless Shadow here. Shes ultra consistent and seems to have come back from her break in good form. Won at the trip before and is a nice price. Minnie Downs ran home really well at Caufield last time in behind Zonza. Wide gate will go back and hopefully running on strong again. Blazing Dragon has come down from Sydney after a good run last start at odds. Very nice odds and could be Barts Cup day winner. Twilighting at her best will be too good for these, but hasnt been in great form. Very wary of her though and at $21 could be the blowout. Tough race, with plenty of chances. Selections: 6, 8, 9, 4 Race 3: The Carnival Handicap, over 2800m. Another full field of 20 with the 3 early scratchings. Got this narrowed down to a hitout between the 2 imports. Opinion was SUPER late on Australian Debut after missing the start. Goes up in weight but the extra trip will suit perfectly. The Danger is the international visitor Caravan Rolls On. The pair met in the Ebor in the UK over this trip back in August and Opinion came out on top, and i think they are clearly the top 2 here. Thubiaan is not in the best form, but he has 2 wins at this trip and has never missed a place at Flemington and could show a return to form. Putting Planet Purple in for 4th pick. Ran well and was finishing hard when hampered in the City Tatts in Sydney, Hes in the mix here. Selections: 1, 3, 6, 4 Race 4: The Lavazza Short Black, a Group 3 over 1400m for Mares. Another tough race, and although im a HUGE fan of Arinosa im going with the value runner here in Vibrant Rouge. 2 from 2 this prep with 2 very good runs. She has a great win Strike Rate and im happy to have her at the odds ($12). Arinosa has to go in for 2nd, Shes definatley the class of this field. Im ignoring her run last start in the Manikato as the Valley just didnt suit her. If she runs anything to her best shes hard to beat. Koonoonoo was super behind Red Tracer last start and if the speed is not on here she is the one who could steal it. For 4th pick im with Shes Clean, Last run was put down to being in season and start before that was Super behind Arinosa at WFA, meets her 1.5kgs better here Will go back and need luck but is in this.. Think the winner comes from this 4. Selections: 7, 1, 3, 4 Race 5: The Schweppes 1000, for the 3yos. A field of 18 goes down the straight here. Yet another tough one with a mix of different formlines. I see this going at a Blistering pace so looking to the run on horses. Going to stick with Diamond Oasis here for one last chance. Back to the 1000m suits and he hasnt been to far away from some good ones. Selectify is another who comes back to the 1000m from that same race. Beat Diamond Oasis home in that but not sure the drop back suits him as much. Anatina Has a great record over the 1000m and shes got a win under her belt down the straight. Iconic flew home over the 1000m first up at Caufield and 2nd up to 1200m was ok. Back to 1000m and hot speed are plusses. Plenty of chances but look for run on horses. Selections: 7, 12, 5, 2 Race 6: The Lexus Hybrid Plate, A listed race for 3yo Fillies over 1400m. 9 to go round here and have narrowed it down to 4 realistic chances. Going value here with Bulbula. 3 Starts back she ran super behind Mays Dream think the 1400m suits especially if the speed is genuine and at $12 think shes a good E/W Bet. Politeness has been in super form and her last run is a total forgive after being caught wide over the mile. If she gets back to form before that shes the danger. Moderate comes here from Sydney with 3 wins from 4. Hasnt beat a great deal but has been running good time and last start was Super impressive with big weight. Roop All has 2 seconds from 2 starts and has been good at both outings, she can improve and make presence felt here. Happy with those 4. Selections: 1, 5, 3, 8 Race 7: The BIG ONE. The Emirates Melbourne Cup. As with alot of these big races, there are so many chances, and well say if you like something stick with it. The value is pretty much everywhere due to the large field, and well try and point you to things to put in ur exotics. I gave our Full Cup preview on each runner Yesterday and really cant add a great deal. https://facebook/BackingAWinner/posts/606678862723892 Ive decided despite the draw Im sticking with Voleuse de Coeurs. She comes into this on the back of a SUPER St Ledger win, Drops drastically in weight and has the turn of foot required to win this race. Ive always been a fan of the Kergolay form coming into the Melbourne Cup and its always stood up pretty well, so Verema has to be considered. Drops 5.5kgs from that run and from the good gate should position herself perfectly. Regular jock has won the Melbourne Cup so that is another plus. Fiorente came to Australia last year and ran super in the Cup first up. Has had the benefit of a full year in oz now and his leadup runs have been very good. Brown Panther is the most intruiging runner for me. The opinion from people in the know is this guy is CLASS and hes been set for this race since mid last year. If hes runs at his best he will be hard to beat from the very good gate. As we said its a race where so many can win, So if you like something here stick with it. Ive also been asked to provide a Trifecta for those who like a big shot. So heres what i would go with. 5, 6, 16, 17, 18, 21/4, 5, 6, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22/4, 5, 6, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22/ $110 will get you 25% Selections: 17, 21, 6, 5 Race 8: The cup is now over and you are either loaded up with cash or chasing ur tail looking for a winner to pull you out of the you know what. Im confident of a first 4 here. Big fan of Salon Soldier, We tipped him at his debut run in Australia and he was brilliant. He gets out to an even more suitable trip here and although a step up in class he gets the light weight and we think hes a super chance. Rain Drum has been super since his return. A win in the Group 2 Shannon and then a super run behind Toydini in the Crystal Mile at WFA. From Gate 1 should be on the speed and be hard to run down. Mull of Killough was specked at odds in the Cox Plate and didnt run to great, however i dont think the Valley track suits the European stayers and despite the big weight i think he will be a real chance here at Flemington. For 4th pick im on Gris Caro, yet another import who has shown good form since arriving in Oz. Really confident of a first 4 here. Selections: 5, 3, 1, 4 Race 9: MSS Security Sprint, a Listed race over 1200m. Another full field here and yet ANOTHER tough one. Going with Thats the one, Good record at the track, good at the trip, good fresh record and price around $12 is very nice. Ready to Rip was super first up in the Caufield Sprint and that form franked by Spirit of Boom. His 2nd up form is impressive and will be running home strongly. Same can be said about Pago Rock, who was ridden upside down last start. If he goes back to usual pattern hes another good chance. For 4th pick im going all the way to the emergency Nearest the Pin, who is ultra consistent. Down on the minimum, has a super record at the trip and has been in very good form. Selections: 6, 1, 3, 21 Race 10: The last of the day is the Emirates Airlines Plate, a Rating 90 race over 1400m. By this time most are drunk either on sorrow or celebration, but for those who arent theres one here at odds who could be a very good chance. Hosting won very well first up in Sydney then was very good behind Rain Drum 2nd up. Last start was disapointing but pulled up sore. Happy to take the $10 on offer that hes all ok and think he could finish the day on a good note. Have always had a huge opinion of Lampedusa and his record at the trip is very very good. Will be up near the speed and hard to hold out. The New Boy is another who has a great track/trip record. First up was wide and ran ok, will be much fitter and cannot be dismissed at good odds. Bradman has 3 wins from 6 at this trip and has won 2nd up, Hes been placed at Group 3 level before (behind Toydini/Hawkspur) and has ability. Selections: 4, 6, 3, 13 Best Bet of the Day: Race 8 Number 5 Salon Soldier Value Bet of the Day: Race 6 Number 1 Bulbula Have a Great Cup day, Good Luck and Happy Punting
Posted on: Mon, 04 Nov 2013 10:24:54 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015