dear Raila,A variance analysis between the total votes cast for presidential election and total votes cast for gubernatorial election during the 2013 General Election reveals that the presidential votes exceeded the gubernatorial votes by 78,325. This means the presidential voter turnout was 85.91 per cent, compared to a gubernatorial turnout of 85.36 per cent. The disparity between voter turnout in the presidential and gubernatorial races was 0.55 per cent; less than 1 per cent, a fact acknowledged by the European Union election observers. This is contrary to the claim by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, as published by The Standard on Sunday on May 19, that presidential votes exceeded gubernatorial votes by 267,798. A further analysis reveals that presidential votes were excess in 38 of the 47 counties, while gubernatorial votes exceeded presidential votes in nine. The counties with fewer presidential votes were Kakamega, Kisii, Nyandarua, Vihiga, Busia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Narok and Mandera. Of the 38 counties where presidential votes were high, Machakos and Bungoma counties recorded the largest disparities of 15,656 and 10,846 respectively. In Machakos County, presidential voter turnout was 83.59 per cent compared to gubernatorial which was 80.08 per cent, making the discrepancy to 3.52 per cent. Other counties which recorded a substantial disparity were Nairobi and Kilifi where presidential votes were more than gubernatorial by 7,751 and 6,370 respectively. Surprisingly, Machakos and Bungoma had more ‘excess’ presidential votes than the expansive and populous Rift Valley, which recorded a variance of 7,441 (0.25 per cent, the lowest for Kenya’s eight provinces). The highest discrepancy was recorded in Coast (1.18 per cent), while Eastern (1.08 per cent), Western (0.67 per cent), Nyanza (0.52 per cent), and Central (0.37 per cent). North Eastern was the only region where gubernatorial votes cast exceeded presidential votes by 0.65 per cent. Interestingly, CORD won in Coast, Eastern, Nyanza, Western and Nairobi, all which had excess presidential votes than Central, Rift Valley and North Eastern where Jubilee won. A further analysis of the 38 counties that had excess presidential votes reveals Machakos and Bungoma contributed 17.78 and 12.32 per cent of the national excess presidential votes, Nairobi 8.8 per cent, Kilifi 7.23 per cent, in that order. Some Jubilee strongholds such as Nyeri (2,963) Kajiado (2,884) and Kirinyaga (2,565) also had excesses, but not as wide as CORD areas. Most counties that recorded a big variance were actually where CORD presidential candidate Raila Odinga won (Machakos was his stronghold and his support in Kilifi and Bungoma was stronger than his strongest rival Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee). He also won in Nairobi narrowly by beating Uhuru by over 32,000 votes. If excess presidential votes had been recorded in Jubilee strongholds only, then the argument that Uhuru had an undue advantage would be logical. But this was not the case. During the disputed 2007 General Election, ODM, whose presidential candidate was none other than Raila advanced the same argument. However, according to Kriegler Report, disparity between presidential votes cast and parliamentary votes cast were not confined to only Kibaki’s strongholds but was common to all the three major presidential candidates. Analysis of the 129 constituencies with excess presidential votes cast against parliamentary votes cast revealed that Raila won in 64 of them, Kibaki 58 and Kalonzo in 7 constituencies. From the above revelation, Raila’s allegations that his victory is always “stolen” whenever he loses an election may not be based on facts.
Posted on: Sat, 03 Aug 2013 16:15:47 +0000
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