Latest data sets are coming in and continue to suggest an all-rain event for north Texas, on and off from late Thursday through early Saturday with another round late Sunday into Monday of next week. Even the Canadian Model has once again backed off on its prediction of snow and is now going for all rain. Now we will wait and see if the European Model - which now stands alone in its snowfall forecast - backs off on its wintry prediction when its new data sets come in after 2 AM. Some of you have asked why I have been disagreeing so much with the European Model lately when I so often sing its praises. The short answer is this: the UPPER LEVEL atmospheric patterns predicted late this week by the European Model do not appear to be compatible with its predicted SURFACE patterns. In other words, they look to be out of sync with one another. This may be why the Euro is going for so much snow for the Metroplex. But to me, being out of sync has never looked right which is why the Stat Method has effectively ignored the European Model this time around and has consistently been going for all rain. Does that mean the Euro will be the only computer model that will be wrong? Not necessarily. I have seen the Euro be the only one that was right! But in this case, its forecast of accumulating snow for the Meteroplex does not appear to be realistic, so I will continue to call for all rain ... unless somehow the UPPER and SURFACE patterns really do sync up the way the Euro thinks they will! :)
Posted on: Mon, 18 Nov 2013 06:09:45 +0000
Trending Topics
© 2015