000 WTNT43 KNHC 121755 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL - TopicsExpress

000 WTNT43 KNHC 121755 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low pressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface winds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCN.

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