1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW THAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED. THE POSITION INDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT. JERRY IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR. THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY WILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION PERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW. JERRY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA MC
Posted on: Thu, 03 Oct 2013 02:42:41 +0000