1100 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2014 THE GREATLY VALUED AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE ON JULIO HAS ENDED BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW JULIO MOVING NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING. NO EYE IS APPARENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY FROM GOES-15 AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FROM HONOLULU AND JTWC GAVE CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 4.5...WHILE THE NESDIS SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH GAVE A C.I. OF 4.0. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. JULIO REMAINS IN SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. JULIO IS EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT TAKE THEIR TOLL ON JULIO. AS JULIO TRACKS FARTHER NORTH IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. JULIO IS EXPECT TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AFTER 72 HOURS. JULIO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS WARM CORE ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.9N 154.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.6N 155.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.5N 156.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 157.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 29.5N 158.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 30.9N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 33.2N 158.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 36.5N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON MC
Posted on: Mon, 11 Aug 2014 09:22:31 +0000
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