*** 12z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN going balls to the wall FOR MAJOR/ HISTORIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM MARCH 25-26... *** it is IDENTICAL to the 00Z EURO ENSEMBLE but this run is tad colder. The all important and critical 850 mb temperatures continue to support almost all snow through most of VA as well as western and central NC all of MD DEL the eastern third of PA all of NJ NYC southeast NY state including all of NYC/ long Island all of CT RI MASS S southeast NH and Maine. (for those of you who are not weather geeks one of the parameters meteorologist use in determining the rain snow line is the temperature Line or ISOTHERM at 1 mile above the ground which is the 850 millibar or mb level. At a bare minimum to get snow at the ground .. he temperatures in the clouds at 850 mb must be zero or colder... Ideally -2c or -4c. ) What is particular impressive about the midday Thursday European ensemble is that it shows RICHMONDs 850 ISOTHERM staying at an ideal or textbook -4c for the entire event. In fact the r/s line or the 0 degrees isotherm is actually located over se VA and Eastern NC. Thus it is possible that even the interior portions of southeastern VA a such as Williamsburg and Franklin could see some accumulating snow from this Low... as well as the interior portions of eastern NC such as Elizabeth City Roanoke Rapids & Rocky Mount. In central and western NC the European ensemble strongly suggest that all of western and Central NC WEST of I- 85 will be all snow. In VA this is a pretty darn good big event and again be cause it is a Gulf of Mexico lower that is coming up the coast that does not appear to be a major dry slot issue here. We are NOT looking at one area of Low pressure dying out and another one reforming on the coast. the European ensemble mean shwos large areas of 4-8 over western half of NC and almost all of VA MD DEL southeast PA and southern NJ and 8-12 over NYC into CT Long island and BOS. *** again keep in mind that the import thing here is that the snow mounts are again increasing as we are getting closer to the event.** All that being said again let me emphasize that the heaviest precipitation /snow does NOT fall over the mountains of VA WVA VA western MD central PA or central NY state. These areas see a decent snow according to the model data but not a major event. Further up the coast Washington, DC to Boston it absolutely crushed with snow. I mean it hammered. The only reason why I am not talking over a foot of snow or more... this point is because of the MARCH sun angle. Voices of the Bulge timing of this event shows that the best or heaviest precipitation/ snow moves into the DC Baltimore metro areas by sunset the continues during the evening and overnight hours and then a little later into Philly NJ NYC CT se Mass BOS during the overnight hours . If this is correct and I do not know what to be correct but if it is... good googly moogly....
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 21:02:02 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015