134 ACUS11 KWNS 102039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102038 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-102215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/MUCH OF VA INTO MD/DE/NJ/PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293... VALID 102038Z - 102215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO FROM FAR NORTHERN NC INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MD/DE INTO SOUTHERN PA/NJ...AND PERHAPS EVEN ADDITIONAL PARTS OF PA CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF WW 293 /MONITORING TRENDS/. DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS...WITH A FEW EARLIER INSTANCES OF TRANSIENT SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD/OFFSHORE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF VA/MD INTO DE/NJ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC/MUCH OF CENTRAL VA THROUGH EARLY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH A SECONDARY ZONE OF CONFLUENCE/FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER DRY SLOT AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THIS FORCING...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER 80S F ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA/MD...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF TSTMS. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUSTAINED LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE...AS WELL AS TRANSIENT/SMALL SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO RISK. OF NOTE...COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/SMALL BOW RISK MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR A WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION HAS REMAINED TEMPERED THUS FAR. ..GUYER.. 06/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ... LAT...LON 39977487 38987492 36567618 36357679 36677860 36808035 38177898 39587856 41087892 39977487
Posted on: Mon, 10 Jun 2013 21:43:06 +0000