2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* STY Haiyan is expected to move in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will be passing in between the islands of Yap and Palau by Wednesday afternoon and evening...and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the early morning hours of Thursday...and move across the South Philippine Sea. By Friday morning, Haiyan will be at near landfall, approaching the shores of Southern Samar and Eastern Leyte. STY Haiyan will continue to rapidly intensify within the next 24 hours as the system moves over the warmer sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea...and could become an extremely dangerous Category 5 STY on Thursday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 270 km/hr between the evening of Wednesday through Thursday evening. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: THURSDAY MORNING: Over the northeastern portion of South Philippine Sea at Category 5 strength after crossing P.A.R....about 225 km northwest of Koror, Palau [8AM NOV 07: 9.0N 133.4E @ 270kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly to Category 4...as it prepares to make landfall over Southern Samar...about 155 km southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM NOV 08: 11.0N 126.7E @ 240kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Moving across the West Philippine Sea after traversing Mindoro Strait...weakens further to Category 3...about 160 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [8AM NOV 09: 12.8N 119.0E @ 205kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Below is the summary of the storms parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts. 11-KM PINHOLE EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with 118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Yap State (Federated States of Micronesia). OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Republic of Palau (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 210 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
Posted on: Wed, 06 Nov 2013 06:54:47 +0000
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