2012 to date The first two quarters of 2012 are already in the books, showing +14% growth. Although publicly traded companies have by and large not yet reported 3Q12 earnings (many have fiscal periods ending in October), monthly sales announcements, industry data and anecdotal evidence give us a good sense of how the quarter will play out. Year on year deceleration is the operative word. Bain has pencilled in a 7% yoy revenue advance. two forecasts for the holidays For the upcoming holiday season, Bain has two forecasts. Its base case is that 4Q12 will show the same yoy gain as 3Q12, up 7%. It’s optimistic case is that the holidays will show the same yoy growth they did in 2011, +12%-+13%. (For what it’s worth–personally, I’m not familiar enough with Ms. Arpizio’s work to have an opinion–both Bain’s base case for 4Q11 (+8%) and is optimistic case (+10%) were conservative.) Bain continues to project annual +4% to +6% growth in personal luxury goods growth in constant currency over the next several years. This will be driven by Asian consumers, tourism, deeper penetration of emerging markets and of second-tier cities in developed markets, and rapidly expanding online and outlet channels. I think this figure may prove to be too low. Accessories–leather goods and shoes–will likely be the best categories.
Posted on: Sat, 20 Jul 2013 20:18:51 +0000