2015: HOW BUHARI CAN DEFEAT JONATHAN General Muhammadu Buhari’s emergence from the presidential primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has set the stage for what promises to be a titanic battle for Aso Rock in 2015 in a straight fight between the retired general and President Goodluck Jonathan. With Buhari as the standard-bearer, the leaders, members and supporters of the opposition APC have returned to the drawing board with strategies on how to defeat President Jonathan. When he was given the opportunity to make his pre-convention address to delegates at the Teslim Balogun Square, Lagos last Thursday, former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, did not mince words over his commitment to selfless service and stance against corruption. He emphatically told the delegates that he was only willing to offer himself for service but not to induce them with money to obtain their votes. “I can’t give you a fistful of dollars or naira to purchase your support. Even if I could, I would not do so. The fate of this nation is not up for sale. What I will give you and this nation is all of my strength, commitment, sweat and toil in the service of the people. What I can give you is my all,” Buhari told the delegates. While lashing out at the six-year tenure of the incumbent administration of President Goodluck Jonathan and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) during which, Buhari declared, Nigeria had walked backwards, he said, “I know what it takes to achieve real change - I have led our nation before – in times almost as unhappy as these. I know that to solve our problems we need real leadership, not warm words and empty promises. A leader needs integrity and strength and an unbending commitment to do what is right. I know that leaders must not just mouth words about change, they must embody it in their lives and their values.” Apparently, Buhari convinced the delegates as demonstrated in the outcome of the convention. Even as the counting was still ongoing, it was obvious that he would carry the day as his votes were surpassing those of his co-contestants. Consequently, the Teslim Balogun Stadium was agog, even counting got half-way, with the Generals’s supporters chorusing: “Sai Buhari, sai Buhari”, meaning Buhari is the man! The retired general polled a total of 3,430 votes to defeat four other contestants who conceded defeat and pledged to work towards his success in next year’s presidential elections. With his victory, Gen Buhari is set to, once again, confront President Jonathan in what promises to be the mother of all battles for Aso Rock next February. This is not the first time Buhari is taking a shot at the presidency. Having made three unsuccessful attempts in 2003, 2007 and 2011, Buhari will be having what promises to be his best shot next year. Buhari’s major challenges As someone whose support base and popularity has been largely among the masses of the north, Buhari’s supporters consider his well-known disciplined and spartan lifestyle as just what the country needs to get to grips with the socio -political and economic crises facing the country, including the insurgency in the north. But this won’t be enough to accord him an automatic ticket before the electorate for, as analysts contend, Buhari would certainly face a number of challenges. While his victory in the North and the South-West is easily predictable, some analysts say his greatest challenge would come from the South-South and the South-East, where the APC party doesn’t seem to have been able to penetrate so deep as to assure it appreciable votes in the February election. Even in the South-West where the goodwill that President Jonathan enjoyed in the 2011 elections has been hugely eroded, the PDP has been working hard at winning over some politicians who could be opinion moulders as to convince many voters to go for Jonathan. With a huge financial chest at its disposal to lure over some leaders and elders in the Southwest green-eyed by the emergence of APC National Leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as a popular and influential leader in the region and who would just be too happy to play the spoiler, more for selfish gains than for Jonathan, the PDP would seem to have succeeded in splitting the APC ranks in some states. Despite this development, analysts say, the PDP would still need a lot of grassroots convincing to do in the region to regain some measure of goodwill for the president. This is one region where sentiments of religion and ethnicity may pale into insignificance at the election; many people in the region, acclaimed for its political enlightenment, are said to be asking questions about Jonathan’s performance so far in general terms. The South-South and South-East are where the Jonathan’s fortunes are vast, with the PDP controlling the seven states of Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, and Abia. The rival APC controls three states Edo, Rivers and Imo. Against this backdrop, some analysts say the APC would face the uphill task of selling Buhari in the two zones that have been the support base of the PDP since 1999. PDP propangadists seem to be doing a good job of selling Jonathan to voters in the two regions, although there is beginning to be a growing swell of Buhari supporters there. Notable on Facebook as unabashed supporters of Gen Buhari to win in next year’s polls are Emeka Oparah, a topshot at a telecom company Nigeria and Uforma Bernard, a Christian cleric who champions South-South for Buhari. On December 11, 2014 Oparah posted on his Facebook timeline, “Six months ago, I was almost literally on my own on the GMB (Gen Muhammadu Buhari) matter among friends and relatives. I could not mention his name once I arrived the South-East. I’m glad the narrative is changing and the believers are increasing and multiplying. With our mere two fish and five loaves of bread, we have fed thousands and still going strong. By the grace of God, this dream shall come true and we shall all be happy.” As Oparah posited, Buhari has been a hard sell. Unlike among the people of the South-West where finer benchmarks of performance, rather than religion and ethnicity are largely considered, Buhari’s supporters would have a time on their hand redirecting the minds of voters in the South-South and South-East. This sentiment was gainfully employed by Jonathan’s supporters in the 2011 election in the two zones and is a major weapon being resorted to to win voters’ minds as the Jonathan camp battles to curb the real threat that Buhari’s “CHANGE’’ mantra poses... Secondly, Buhari’s regime as a military head of state which lasted from January 1984 till August 1985 is viewed with mixed feelings. While many Nigerians remember the period best for his strict campaign against indiscipline and corruption, others point out its alleged human rights abuses. For instance, as part of a campaign against waste and corruption, about 200 politicians, officials and businessmen were reportedly jailed or detained during Buhari’s regime. While some saw this as the heavy-handed repression of military rule, others saw it as a praiseworthy attempt to fight the endemic graft that has been the bane of Nigeria’s development. Nonetheless, Buhari retains a rare reputation for honesty among politicians, both military and civilian, largely because of this campaign. It is against the above backdrop that analysts say Buhari’s campaign would require a strong and calculated strategy that would appeal to the electorate, especially outside his geo-political areas. What, it is believed, could also work against Buhari is the wave of insurgency in most parts of the North, which is feared could disenfranchise many voters and considerably reduce the APC candidate’s votes. Buhari is widely regarded as the favoured candidate of the North and heads into the election hoping to garner millions of what could be decisive votes. But with many potential voters already disenfranchised as Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) and many others who could be affected by fear of insurgency, Buhari is not unlikely to be negatively affected by the development. What could be his loss in the North would be Jonathan’s gain in the South-South and South-East where large turnouts of voters are not unexpected. ‘How Buhari can defeat Jonathan’ The National Vice Chairman, South-South of the APC, Mr Hilliard Eta, has allayed fears over Buhari not making a strong impact in the zone. Describing the fear as unfounded, Eta said the people of the South-South zone understand the PDP tactic of the ethnic and religious card to win votes. He argued that the people have realised that the same tactic used in 2011 has not brought the needed benefit and development to most parts of the region. While assuring that they would work to ensure that Buhari emerges victorious in the region despite the fact that President Jonathan comes from the area, Mr Eta said, “Let me assure you that Buhari will win in Cross Rivers, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta. Our people are not going to play to the gallery or succumb to cheap lies being peddled by the PDP in the region.” Director of Publicity of the Buhari 2015 Support Group Centre, Dr Chida Maduekwe, said the support groups would employ a vigorous media campaign strategy to educate the electorate in the problem areas and disabuse their minds on the perception they had of the APC presidential candidate. A former Bauchi State deputy governor, Alhaji Garba Gadi said there are issues that are of concern, especially the insecurity situation in the North-East where the voting population always goes for the opposition. According to him, the region has been resilient in the face of the challenges but their votes will go to the candidate of the party who they hope would address the problems that have been ravaging the region for years and which the PDP, he said, has been indifferent to and has shown a lack of commitment to address. “States like Bauchi, Taraba, Gombe and Adamawa that are controlled by the PDP have powerful political heavyweights that will ensure victory for Buhari beyond the required percentage. People like Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan, the Taraba State’s APC governorship candidate; Senator Danjuma Goje and, of course, the presence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a former presidential aspirant of the PDP will ensure Buhari’s victory in Adamawa, especially with the promise Atiku has made that he will support whoever emerges the party’s presidential candidate,” Gadi said. The National Secretary of the APC, Mai Mala Buni was sure that with the spread of the party in the country, it will have no difficulty campaigning for its candidate in any part of the country. “From what happened in the primaries where he emerged as our candidate, you can see that Buhari was elected by delegates from all parts of the country. “We have effective structures in all the states to help in the campaign. We won’t have any problem with the campaigns. It will be based on issues not sentiments,” he said. While noting that the candidate and the party have informed Nigerians about what they planned to do for the country, especially in the priority areas, Buni said, “Even in the South-South and the South-East geo-political zones and states where people are expressing concern about Buhari’s chances of winning or getting the required percentage, we have people in those areas who know the terrain and will work for his victory at the polls.” On the insurgency problem in some parts of the North and its implications against Buhari’s chances, the APC scribe said the party’s officials would prevail on INEC to ensure it conducts elections in the troubled areas of the North-East as, according to him, it is a stronghold of the APC where Buhari is sure to sweep the stakes. A former deputy governor of Kebbi State, Alhaji Suleiman Argungu said Nigerians would benefit immensely from Gen Buhari‘s wealth of experience if he is elected president in the coming election. “I am sure Gen Buhari will not disappoint Nigerians when he becomes President. Based on his antecedents, he has all it takes to deliver the country from the misrule of the Peoples Democratic Party-led government. Don’t forget he is a former Minister of Petroleum and a governor. When he was Head of State we saw how he tackled corruption and how within a short time, he changed so many things in this country to the admiration of the entire world,” Argungu said. He maintained that Buhari is upright in his dealings, a virtue he argued would help the country to overcome some of its problems associated with corruption. “Throughout the period of his administration he did not squander a kobo. During the Gen Sani Abacha regime when he was made the Petroleum Trust Fund’s (PTF) Chairman, Nigerians, particularly the local people, felt the positive impact of the PTF because of the leadership quality of Buhari. He could have squandered the money meant for PTF’s projects because at that time nobody was auditing him on how he was spending the money because he was trusted. I believe when he becomes president in 2015, he will change the country for the better because he is dedicated, determined, selfless and upright in his dealings,” he said. Colonel Hameed Ali, a former military administrator of Kaduna State said that having conducted the presidential primaries won by Gen Buhari (Rtd), the next move by the APC is to actualize its campaign plan, which he said would be issue-based. “The next thing is to actualise our campaign plan and hit the road to begin to woo the people to vote for change, for a better future for this country, well-being of the people, security and eradication of corruption. What is going to dominate our campaign is that we will meet and interact with people, we will sell our own ideas to them and campaign strictly based on issues. We will pick the issues – primarily corruption and insecurity – because these are the major challenges bedevilling the country. “We will campaign based on issues like unemployment because we have already mapped out a strategy on how to curb unemployment. We will be in touch with the people in Nigeria. We will also practicalise things and let the people know that our promises are going to be fulfilled. We are not going to make empty promises, so we will encourage the people to believe what we say because we will do them,” Ali said. On how the APC would make inroads into the South-South and South-East which are controlled by the PDP, he said: “We are not going to dole out money, neither are we going to buy people’s conscience. We want people to realize that Nigeria needs to move forward, to make them realize that Nigeria is in a state of decay and it is only a change of government that will bring that. APC is capable of bringing about the desired change in this country. We are not going to give anybody money; we did not give money in our primaries, why should we give money to anybody? We will be in partnership with whoever wants this country to move forward.” ‘My plans for Nigeria’ To General Buhari, the outcome of the APC presidential primaries is a demonstration of democracy at work and a testimony to the fact that democracy as a concept is greater than the interests of individuals in a free and functional political system. “My nomination is not because I am better than any of the other contestants. I see it as a tribute and mark of confidence to carry the torch as we all join hands to rescue our dear country Nigeria, from those who have led us into the current state of insecurity, poverty, sectarian divide and hopelessness among our people”, Buhari said in his post- election speech. Sounding philosophical, the APC presidential hope said the task of preserving the nation’s future, which must be a responsibility for any serious administration, is currently lacking. “Sadly, the current administration does not believe in this obligation. By their actions they are leading us to calamity. At international conferences, the Nigerian delegation is usually among the largest but at the same time the least effective. Our president should have the status and the voice of Africa’s largest nation. But in political influence, we are among the weakest,” he said. He pledged to govern Nigeria honestly “in accordance with the Constitution and strive to secure the country and efficiently manage the economy.” He also promised to attack poverty through broadly-shared economic growth and corruption through impartial application of the law. “We will tolerate no religious, regional, ethnic or gender bias in our government. We will return Nigeria to a position of international respect through a patriotic foreign policy. We will choose the best Nigerians for the right jobs. Our government will be committed to the cause of the common man,” he maintained. With Buhari’s victory as the APC presidential flag bearer and the ruling PDP ratifying the adoption of President Jonathan as its sole candidate in the next election, observers say the 2015 presidential poll would be a battle between the power of incumbency and the forces of change. President Jonathan fights fiercest electoral battle For President Jonathan, next February’s elections would be the most fierce electoral battle he has ever fought. It was earlier reported that after it was certain on Thursday that Gen Buhari had won the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential ticket, Senate President David Mark rushed into the Presidential Villa to meet with President Jonathan to advise him that he (Jonathan) really has a formidable opponent to contend with in next year’s election. Mark was quoted to have described the opposition as “very serious to contend with.” The president had had his only major electoral victory cut out for him, as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remained too solid in 2011 for the disparate opposition parties that contested the presidential election against it. The 2011 election would be his first major test at the polls since he emerged on the political scene in 1999 as deputy governor to Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. Fate had always paved for him the path to the throne; on December 9, 2005 he became governor of Bayelsa state by default when Alamieyeseigha was impeached. It was through the same default manner he became president on May 6, 2010 after the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua, to whom he was vice, the previous day. For the 2011 elections, especially the presidential, the opposition parties, particularly the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) had tried to merge to give him and the PDP a fight, but the effort failed as leaders of the two parties couldn’t reconcile their differences. So Jonathan coasted home to easy victory, garnering a total of 22 million votes against the 12 million that his main opponent, Buhari got. The successful merger of the ACN and the CPC, together with the Al Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) last year has, however, altered the electoral calculations for next year’s elections, to leave the PDP and President Jonathan in an unusually tight position. Buhari seems to be enjoying among Nigerians his greatest goodwill ever since Gen Babangida, in 1985, overthrew the military regime he headed. On the other hand, Jonathan, amidst many allegations of playing mother hen to corrupt practices and corrupt politicians since the 2011 election, appears to have lost a lot of the goodwill on which he rode to power. Beside the corruption allegations, Jonathan’s handling of the insecurity wave in the country has been criticised by some prominent Nigerians that included Dr Christopher Kolade whom President Jonathan once picked to head the SURE-P initiative, Professsor Wole Soyinka and Jonathan’s former mentor and ex-president Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Jonathan has also come under strident criticisms from respected leaders and media in the United States of America. President Jonathan himself once admitted he had widely suffered from criticisms. In August 2012, at the opening of the 52nd Annual General of the Nigerian Bar Association at the International Conference Centre in Abuja, the president whined, “I think I am the most criticised President in the whole world.” At the occasion, he promised his audience he would be the most praised Nigerian president ever before he leaves office.
Posted on: Sun, 14 Dec 2014 16:48:21 +0000
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