2015 elections now really intriguing By MINABERE IBELEMA Were Nigeria a saner democracy, the 2015 elections would be anticipated with much excitement. In the glory days of heavyweight boxing, it would have been the equivalent of Mohammed Ali vs. Joe Frazier. Alas, Nigeria being what it is, 2015 still portends dangers, what with the blustering from the North and South and the predictions of doom from all over. Still, if you are an optimist like me, you’d rather ponder the excitement. Back to the Ali-Frazier analogy, those who are old enough to remember know that nobody gets away from the TV set when the two pugilists were in the ring. In their contrasting styles, they add intrigue to what is otherwise the most brutish sport since the age of Roman gladiators. I would liken the Peoples Democratic Party to Smokin’ Joe. The fellow was an ever-confident brawler, always weaving menacingly forward. He bobbed to avoid blows and took them when they landed. In return, he pounded the opponent’s mid-section, then went for lethal uppercuts. The All Progressives Congress — the recent amalgam of multiple parties — would be more like Ali. Not wanting to go power for power, Ali would tactically back-pedal and, to quote him, “float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.” In their trilogy of bouts, Frazier won the first and Ali the second. In the third, both fighters were so exhausted that Frazier’s manager threw in the towel as the 15th round was about to begin. Ali himself collapsed in exhaustion as he got up to celebrate. Any wonder that every announcement of a match between Ali and Frazier created excitement and much anticipation. If Nigeria’s politics were more normal, the probable PDP-APC contest in 2015 should be similarly anticipated. It would be done by the rules, with only the scorecards determining who won. Even before the scorecards are announced, the losing side might graciously concede. The PDP is the political titan that the upstart APC is eager to dethrone. Despite its internal squabbles, the PDP is still an organisational whole. It is still the only major party that was built from scratch. In contrast, the APC remains parts under assemblage. Much like Frazier, the PDP has to rely on its superior clout and established network. On the other hand, the APC has the advantage of something new, a new hope for an electorate that continues to feel jilted. And much like Ali, it has to be nimble and tactically creative. The APC’s wooing of Theophilus Danjuma, the retired general and former defence minister, is an early indication of its tactical creativeness. It is also another indication of Nigeria’s growing political sophistication despite the crudity of some political developments. It’s hard to see the advancement when a state’s legislators imagined themselves to be Ali and Frazier in the ring, and the nation’s governors are in verbal combat over who is the chair of their forum. But underneath all of that are hopeful signs. Consider the implications of the APC’s wooing of Danjuma, who would make a formidable candidate, despite the stigma of being a part of our discredited military regimes. As a Northerner, Danjuma would have to pick a Southerner as a running mate. And that could produce the first all-Christian president/vice president in Nigeria’s history. That would parallel the all-Muslim regime of Generals Muhammadu Buhari andTunde Idiagbon. Or Danjuma might pick a southern Muslim, probably from the West, in what would also produce a historical novelty. Normally we have a Northern Muslim paired with a Southern Christian. With Danjuma, we may end up with the reverse. These would all be new territories in Nigeria’s politics, with all the exciting prospects thereunto. Besides the appeal to Christians, the APC’s wooing of Danjuma is even more significant for another reason. It is an indication that political parties are painstakingly looking for leaders who have the least baggage. If nothing else, it is a sign that they are getting the message that Nigerians are tired of political sleaze and ethno-centricism. In the past, the APC would have automatically handed their presidential ticket to Buhari. After all, he is the strongest force behind the merger and he has been the most fervent crusader for the ticket. That the APC is recruiting others is a very good sign for Nigeria’s democracy. The quest for a candidate that is acceptable to the various components of the APC will be the first test of the party’s Achilles heels. Make a good choice, and the APC will become a credible challenger to the PDP. Make the wrong choice, and it will prove to be a mega-party only on paper. Indeed, on paper, the APC looks formidable. With the exception of the South-South, it has strong representation from around the country. It boasts political stalwarts such as the popular Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola, the anti-corruption warrior Nuhu Ribadu, and Buhari himself. There are also Nasir El-Rufai, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and Senator Chris Ngige, the only governor to have been kidnapped from his own office and lived to tell about. But in the APC’s strength in cast of membership also lies its weakness. It is hard to see, for instance, what Fashola, Buhari and Ngige have in common, other than the quest to oust the PDP. One is patriotic, one is parochial and the other is a pragmatist of questionable mettle. That makes for a very loose coalition instead of a party. For this reason, the APC has more to lose if it loses in 2015. Although the PDP has not had the experience of losing a national election, it has a better chance of remaining a viable party if it loses in 2015. In contrast, the APC’s reason for being is to defeat the PDP. If that doesn’t happen, it is likely to come apart at the very seams it was patched together. Moreover, defection at all membership strata of losing parties is a major reason the PDP has hitherto remained dominant. It could experience another surge after 2015. On the other hand, the APC could win and see the defections in its direction. That’s why 2015 holds out the promise of much political excitement, even if with a measure of trepidation. #PUNCH
Posted on: Sun, 18 Aug 2013 07:15:59 +0000
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