5 PM Update from James Spann--Have spent a good bit of time review the current analysis, and mesoscale model data this afternoon. Some thoughts... *The flash flood threat is very real; the HRRR model is printing 5 inches of rain for Birmingham/Tuscaloosa over the next 15 hours, with around 4 inches for Anniston/Gadsden. The heaviest rain will come from about midnight tonight through 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. People in flood prone areas need to be sure they can hear flash flood warnings if needed. *The greatest risk of severe weather should come well past midnight for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston. Seems like we (North/Central Alabama) will get in favorable combination of instability and shear between 4:00 and 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. Southwest Alabama could see severe weather anytime between now and 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. *This is a system with intense dynamics, but marginal thermodynamics. Still, forecast wind profiles suggest a tornado threat tomorrow morning, especially along and south of I-20. North of I-20, the air will remain pretty stable and heavy rain is the primary threat, although the risk of severe weather there is not zero. *Keep an eye on the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog for frequent updates through the night and tomorrow morning. alabamawx
Posted on: Sun, 06 Apr 2014 22:08:38 +0000