500 AM HST SAT AUG 10 2013 HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PERSISTED EVER SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED OVER 24 HOURS AGO. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH A 1138Z AMSU-B PASS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A CONSENSUS CI OF 3.0 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/17...WITH HENRIETTE MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT AT A FASTER CLIP. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. HENRIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO IT/S NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH ANTICIPATED THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 96 HOURS. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO MAINTAIN IT/S STRUCTURE AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.0N 148.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 13.6N 151.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 13.0N 154.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 12.6N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 12.3N 161.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 12.0N 169.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD MC
Posted on: Sat, 10 Aug 2013 14:56:19 +0000
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