7/27/14 - Morning Update and Work Week Outlook Today, were looking at a mix of sun and clouds with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight will drop down around 70 degrees. We have a 30-50% chance of storms later this afternoon, which increases to a 70-90% chance of storms this evening and during the overnight. Some of these storms could be severe as we currently have a 30% chance of damaging winds, 15% chance of large hail, and 5% chance of isolated tornados. Rainfall totals are currently projected around 0.25, as a baseline, with the potential to go higher where we see heavier storm cells develop. In these areas, we could see rainfall totals of closer to 1, if not a bit higher. There is definitely a chance for flash flooding, if we see this heavier rain develop across the area today. In general, if we see more sun break through later today, our chances of stronger storm cells increase from more energy adding into the area, but if the clouds dominate the sky longer, we see the chances decrease from lower energy availability. I will be monitoring how the system is forming up and will have pertinent updates as precipitation approaches the area. As winds will likely pick up with the storm activity, a small craft statement is already set for this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow, we will continue to have a 20-40% chance of lingering showers or thunderstorms, as highs head up into the low 80s. Minimal rainfall is currently projected with locally higher amount possible, if we see a storm cell develop. Winds will be between 15-20 mph, so expect small craft statements to remain in place across the day. After tomorrow, the rest of the work week is looking with sunny or mostly sunny skies, highs around 80 degrees or in the low 80s, and lows near 60 degrees Tuesday through Friday. If that changes through the week, Ill have updates, but right now much of the modeling agrees that we will be clear through next Saturday or Sunday. As I asked last night, please like or share this post to spread exposure. For some reason, my posts have been extremely limited by Facebook lately. Even with over 50 likes and 15 shares yesterday, my last post only reached 575 people out of the over 12,000 that follow the page. I dont know why they seem bent on limiting community and non-profit pages that cant pay for boosting posts, but please know, I am still posting, but the messages are just not getting out there. However, you can always see EVERY post on the website, which I will link below. I encourage you to visit the website to make sure you are not missing anything. Additionally, I can put animated radar in the posts there, so you may find it more useful anyway. Additionally, there is a weather calendar where I post the 3-5 day outlook along with a map page where you can see the latest convective outlook probabilities. This is a major reason why I am running the Kickstarter campaign to try to raise enough funds to upgrade equipment, but also I am hoping to overshoot my goal and develop an app that could replace Facebook as the primary way people connect with the page to ensure that every single follower always gets the posts. Please consider donating. The link is available through the website and I will also post it in the comments below. I appreciate you help with liking and sharing, as you have control over spreading the word, whereas, I clearly do not, despite my best efforts to keep you all informed. Ill be back later with updates as the system moves in. For now, have a great day!!! -Pete
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 10:19:11 +0000
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