9 PM Update Note...there is some data that brings a small/brief band of sleet and freezing rain through the region between 5 am and 9 am tomorrow morning. It is a thin band. Then a lull before more precipitation develops from late morning into the afternoon hours. Just wanted to mention that possibility. A lower than normal confidence surrounds how this all plays out. If southern Illinois ends up being 33 or 34 degrees tomorrow then you end up with a very cold rain. But, with road temperatures so cold there could be problems even with temperatures right at or a degree or so above freezing. That is mainly untreated roadways. If the temperature is 30 or 31/32 degrees then you will have more problems. Which way will it go? This is anything but a straight forward forecast. I feel good about saying most of western Kentucky will be rain. A wintry mix possible at the very beginning and then changing to rain. That part of the forecast is easy. Precipitation should move into western Kentucky during the late morning hours (maybe a light band of precip) into the afternoon hours (when precip will become more widespread as the afternoon wears on) I feel pretty good about the Missouri Bootheel being mostly a rain event. Again, maybe a small window of time where sleet or freezing rain could fall early on. Then rain. The question mark surrounds counties in the advisory and perhaps one county east of there. Temperatures tonight are rising as clouds move in. Areas that are still clear are the cold spots. Temperatures are quite a bit warmer than expected at this hour. This may give us a clue about tomorrow. I am not overly confident about where the 32 degree line ends up tomorrow. But, that has been the case for days on end now. Where to place it with confidence. Since there is no confidence...I dont know. This may end up being a now-cast event. A now-cast is by definition an updated forecast as an event gets underway. IF temperatures are within one or two degrees of freezing then we may not know until the precipitation moves into a particular area. I posted a map a few minutes ago showing 33 degrees over much of the area tomorrow afternoon (according to one model). Will that happen or will it be 31 degrees? Will it be 34 degrees? At this point, I dont know. A range of temperatures in the 31 to 34 range seems likely. If you are in the advisory area then you stand the best chance of some frozen precipitation. There is a window of opportunity in counties close to the advisory to have a period of sleet and freezing rain, as well. But, again - this will depend on temperatures tomorrow late morning and afternoon. If you dont have to travel tomorrow then you dont have much to worry about. If you have to travel and make plans then the best advice is to monitor radar and updates tomorrow morning. You know the forecast. You know the potential for icing and you know where the advisory is. That is about all that can be said right now. Hope for the best for travel conditions, but plan for the potential of ice. That is the very latest information. There are a few more data sets that will roll in over the next hour or two. I doubt they will add anything new to the questions at hand.
Posted on: Sun, 11 Jan 2015 03:13:15 +0000
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