***A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT*** LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, IN WHICH IS "NOT GOOD NEWS" FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NY, AS A BELT OF WARM, MOIST- ADVECTED/ CYCLONIC AIR IS CURRENTLY STREAMING OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, IN WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A SIMLIAR SET-UP AS THE AREAS OF "FLASH FLOODING" THAT OCCURRED RECENTLY, WITH A POTENT/ UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO & THE UPPER GREAT LAKES & IS NOW FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE QUICKLY STREAMING PRE- FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE WHICH MAY BEE- LINE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER/ NY & PA BORDER AREAS, ACCORDING TO A FEW LATEST SHORT- TERM FORECAST MODELS WITH A MORE NARROW QUA- STATIONARY FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE INCREASING/ DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FEEDING OFF LAKES ERIE & ONTARIO IN A PIVOTING MOTION. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE UNUSUAL LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ALOFT AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET WIND SUPPORT CREATES MORE WIDESPREAD & POSSIBLY STRONG T-STORMS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY, AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUGGY & WARM FROM 65 TO 70. ***THE AMPLIFIED/ UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH AN EASTWARD- MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WESTERN, NY NEAR DAYBREAK TO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION/ CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH MIDDAY & TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ CATSKILLS & EASTERN, PA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ESCALATE FROM 700 TO 1000 J/ KG`S FOR POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS MAINLY ALONG & EAST OF THE I- 81 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70`S IN THE WESTERN REGIONS & 80 TO 85 IN THE EASTERN AREAS. **FROM** STEVE MATTISON...VOLUNTEER SKYWARN SPOTTER FOR THE NWS.
Posted on: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 00:37:43 +0000
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