A complicated weather system will be effecting the area over the next couple of days. Overview There is an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and the models indicate the system will lift north and northeastward, effecting the area in the Thursday afternoon to Friday time frame. There are several questions with this system. It is not particularly well organized yet, so the models have a large variety of possible tracks and timing. Also, there is some question about whether the system will get enough tropical characteristics to be named a tropical or subtropical storm (which would be Andrea). Here are a few of the possible scenarios. Possibility #1: The system acquires enough tropical characteristics late today or overnight to be named a tropical or subtropical storm (Andrea), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes it will maintain enough strength as it approaches our area to necessitate tropical storm/subtropical storm watches or warnings. Potential Impacts: Strong winds, flooding rains, isolated tornadoes, and some high surf (although major coastal flooding would not be expected since the storm would be coming at us from the Gulf, not the Atlantic). The impacts would be most likely for the coastal counties. Possibility #2: The system acquires enough tropical characteristics late today or overnight to be names a tropical or subtropical storm (Andrea), but NHC believes it will not maintain its strength as it approaches our area. Potential Impacts: Flooding rains, isolated tornadoes, and high surf, but tropical/subtropical watches and warnings would not be needed. The impacts would be most likely for the coastal counties. Possibility #3: The low pressure area tracks well inland through south central Georgia and the midlands of South Carolina. Potential Impacts: All counties "under the gun" for isolated tornadoes and flooding rains. Possibility #4: The storm tracks just off the coast. Potential Impacts: Mainly over the marine areas and beaches and relatively little impact over land. Variation in Timing of Potential Impacts The different potential speeds and above scenarios mentioned above of the storm evolution also call into question the timing of the worst impacts. However, regardless of the above scenarios, it looks like the brunt of the impacts will take place late Thursday and Thursday night, maybe lingering into early Friday if the storm takes a slower path. Please stay tuned to the latest developments
Posted on: Wed, 05 Jun 2013 19:31:29 +0000
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