A growing consensus that the Fed will begin to taper in the next - TopicsExpress

A growing consensus that the Fed will begin to taper in the next couple of months has hurt MBS this morning. Stronger than expected Jobless Claims data provided additional confirmation that the economy is not weakening, which would be necessary for the Fed to delay tapering. Weekly Jobless Claims declined to 320K, below the consensus of 335K, and the lowest level since October 2007. July CPI matched expectations. CPI rose 0.2% from June, and was 2.0% higher than one year ago. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 0.2%, and was 1.7% higher than one year ago. July Industrial Production was unchanged from June, which was a little weaker than expected. The Empire State index fell short of the consensus forecast. In addition, stronger than expected economic data in Europe has applied upward pressure on global interest rates. A reduction in Fed stimulus would be bad news for the stock market as well, and the Dow is down 200 points. Philly Fed will be released at 10:00 et.

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