. A medical metaphor for insurgency and (counterinsurgency) . 1. An insurgency may be compared to a communicable disease. The insurgent ideology and its popular support are spread through a population by exposure to the equivalent of risk factors: the exploitation of legitimate grievances, propaganda and the insurgent narrative. Agents for the spread of the “disease” are memes—behavioural practices passed on by imitation. Many individuals, especially young people, are not necessarily drawn to an insurgency out of ideological commitment but rather through social and cultural associations between family members and friends. 2. A communicable disease is countered through a holistic and systematic approach involving a wide range of means: changes to behaviour and the environment, such as the reduction of risk factors; isolation and quarantine; inoculation; and, treatment of the clinically infected. 3. Just as a communicable disease may be treated in a number of ways, we can extend the metaphor to illustrate how a COIN strategy may be applied to resolve an insurgency: a. Changes to Behaviour and Environment . Just as the spread of a disease may be curtailed through changes to behaviour and the environment and the removal of risk factors, the same idea may be applied to stop the spread of an insurgency. Grievances and circumstances that fuelled the insurgency’s start and that continue to lend it credence and support must be resolved. b. Isolation and Quarantine . Just as those who are infected with a disease are often quarantined, COIN forces and policies must seek to separate insurgents from the populace. This will firstly cut off support from the populace, but more importantly, will help preclude the “infection” of others and thus an increase to the insurgency membership. The insurgents must be isolated both physically and cognitively from the populace. In the latter sense, this will rely upon defensive information operations and attacks against insurgent communication and propaganda means. c. Inoculation . Those not infected with a disease are inoculated. Likewise, whilst legitimate grievances are being resolved, information operations will be needed to counter the ideological infection of the populace with the narrative and justification for the insurgency. d. Treatment . Those who have been infected by a communicable disease undergo treatment. In the case of those supporting an insurgency, a number of means may be required. Ideally, influence activities (information operations) may be used to persuade and dissuade insurgents and their supporters to pursue peaceful and legitimate means to resolve their grievances. It may even be possible to convert some insurgents to support the military forces of the COIN forces. In other cases, committed insurgents unwilling to surrender may have to be captured, killed or marginalized to the point that they are ineffective .... 4. In order to properly and effectively counter an insurgency, one must truly understand the motivations, aims, strategies and context of the insurgency. Moreover, one must understand the culture in which the insurgency is occurring. This is vital, for the overall goal of the COIN campaign is to solve root causes and to convince the vast majority of the populace to support a legitimate process and to reject the insurgency. This can only be done within the context of the culture at hand. 5. The solution to an insurgency is a political one, which will require a comprehensive approach incorporating a wide variety of agencies with the military in a supporting role. This is reflected in the philosophy and principles that frame the conduct of a COIN campaign . ........................................................................... Figure 2-4: An Insurgency Spread as a Communicable Disease ... This construct was adopted from a briefing by LtGen P.K. Van Riper, USMC retd during the USMC JOINT URBAN WARRIOR EXERCISE 2005 given to the COIN study group. ................................................................... . B-GL-323-004/FP-003 .COUNTER INSURGENCY OPERATIONS ( pages: 2-21, 2-22) . © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2008 .
Posted on: Tue, 07 Oct 2014 03:22:45 +0000
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