** A quick lesson on better understanding severe weather forecasts ** As many of you have hopefully seen by now, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms, and maybe even a few tornadoes within our coverage area of South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas mainly this afternoon-evening (and other parts of the region as well). Although we KNOW that severe thunderstorms are POSSIBLE, we often get a lot of questions leading up to a thunderstorm event along the lines of: Will this particular Town X or Town Y get hit? The truth is, we usually cannot answer that question with any accuracy until an actual storm forms and starts heading toward a particular location, which usually is not until 1 hour or less before it arrives! So, here are a few rules of thumb to help both you and us with the exchange of severe weather forecast information: - When we mention 1-3 days (sometimes farther) in advance that severe storms are possible, and show severe weather risk graphics from the Storm Prediction Center, that simply means that severe storms are POSSIBLE across parts of the general area. It may hit your town, it may stay 25-75 miles away. We have no way of knowing for sure. Just be prepared for the possibility. - When a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is issued, this usually pinpoints the area a little better, and at least narrows it down to a certain batch of COUNTIES that have the best severe potential. Even though watches usually (but not always) come out at least 1-3 hours prior to severe thunderstorms actually moving in, we still CANNOT usually tell you exactly what towns will or wont actually be affected by storms. - Finally, when a severe storm has ACTUALLY FORMED and a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning is issued, thats when we can finally tell with reasonable confidence that your house or town WILL LIKELY be affected by severe weather. So, the bottom line is that we all need to most rely on actual WARNINGS and short-term radar imagery to tell whether a specific spot will be hit. In closing, stay safe and aware of the weather today, and hopefully this lesson helps clear up a few things regarding severe weather forecasts, and what we CAN and CANNOT tell you in advance.
Posted on: Tue, 09 Sep 2014 13:12:04 +0000
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