***ABOUT MARCH 12-13 EVENT WINTER STORM POTENTIAL.... Its time to start focusing on this next system for March 12 - 13. For those of you who are weather Savvy that date has historical significance because is the anniversary date of the MARCH super storm of 1993. Later on I will post some of the Maps about that event.... but for those that do NOT Know ...the March super storm of 1993 was an intense area of low pressure that developed in the Gulf of Mexico and reaches maximum Intensity y coming up over the southeastern states -- NIT over the Northeast US . The Low tracked up from eastern GA eastern SC eastern NC eastern VA into the Delmarva reaching the pressure of 961 mb. . If we assume that the model data with the system for March 12 and 13 next week is correct ... the I can safely say that there is absolutely no similarity between the MARCH 12-13 2014 and MARCH 12-13 1993. There is no similarity with regard to the actual SURFACE weather maps and there is no similarity with regard to the upper air patterns. Unfortunately some of the idiot weenie FB web sites out there are already making the comparison. Please ignore them. The fact that the event for next week is on the anniversary date of the March 1993 super storm does not mean the two events are similar. You have to be a blithering idiot to make that assertion ( and yes are already asserting that) . The first map is the upper air map from the European model valid for March 12. There are couple important features on this map. The first one is Upepr air pattern over Eastern Canada: there is no upper Low or 50/50 Low in the Jet stream located over southeastern Canada. This is a critically important feature for East Coast snowstorms as I have talked about many times. The second feature to consider are the two pieces of energy which I labeled feature #1 and feature #2 These pieces of energy which are called SHORT WAVES in the weather business are going to merge OR phase over the Louisiana Delta. It is this merging or phasing of these two systems which is what causes significant Low pressure area to develop on March 11-12 However because there is no 50/50 Low over southeastern Canada in the jet stream ...the merging of these two pieces of energy over the Louisiana Delta force a RIDGE to develop over the southeastern US. As a result the surface Low pressure area tracks up through Tennessee ...Kentucky ...then into Virginia and across the Delmarva. The operational models are making this to be a fairly strong system especially on the Canadian and on the European. This allows the Low to pull up a LOT of mild air. Assuming the upper air patterns on these Models are correct and the Low actually takes this track ..the rain snow line would be NORTH of Philly nd very close to NYC. The rain snow line would cut across central Pennsylvania into southeastern Ohio and Southern Indiana. That means everybody north of interstate 70 would see snow over the Ohio Valley and north of Interstate 80 in the Northeastern U.S.. NYC is right on the line could go either way. That being said it should be kept in mind that the SEASONAL trend of this winter has been for weather models to OVER develop these Low into huge and intense areas of Low pressure several days out. But as we get closer and closer to the event ...the systems end up looking weaker and weaker. There has also been a STRONG seasonal tendency for weather systems to drift / shift southward ( something we have seen MANY times this winter) so it is possible that the Low on march 12-13 may track/ shift to the south. If that happens this would mean that southern Indiana ... Ohio and West Virginia as well as northern Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore and Philly could see some kind of significant snowfall.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 16:48:17 +0000
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