******ALERT!!! URGENT: 4KM NAM 18Z GUIDANCE IS OUT****** ***URGENT: 4KM NAM 18Z RUN DEPICTING A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STARTING TONIGHT AND STRETCHING INTO TUESDAY*** STATES IMPACTED: TX, OK, KS, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, IL, IN, OH. THE FOLLOWING STATES: CAROLINAS, GA, FL, VA, MD, WVA, PA ARE UNDECIDED AT THIS POINT BUT COULD BE INCLUDED IN LATER UPDATES IMPACTS: ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SYNOPSIS: A VERY INTENSE, STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE UL LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO TEXAS, IT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN/BOMB, AS IT BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT, CAUSING A SQUALL LINE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS WESTERN TX, WESTERN OK, AND WESTERN KS. AS THE SQUALL LINE CREEPS EAST, NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE DISCRETE CELLS, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SQUALL LINE TO EXPLODE IN INTENSITY. WINDGUST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE COULD BE 80-90MPH, WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE SQUALL LINE WILL TRACK INTO THE OZARKS AND MS VALLEY REGION POSING A DANGEROUS WIND GUST/TORNADO THREAT. THE UL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY CURVE N/NE INTO AR AND PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MO BY TUESDAY MORNING, PULLING UP AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS THE SQUALL LINE SPLITS, OR BREAKS. SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY EVENING ARE OFF THE CHARTS, JETSTREAKS WILL BE BETWEEN 75-100KTS OR HIGHER. DEWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S. iN THIS CORRIDOR (AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY), A SERIOUS TORNADO THREAT APPEARS IMMINENT. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT EITHER SPLITS FROM THE LINE OR DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ENTRENCHES INTO THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A STRONG TORNADO THREAT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE SQUALL LINE KEEPS PUSHING EAST, GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE BROKEN LINE TO REGAIN STRENGTH, WITH A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A SECONDARY AREA OF ACTIVITY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED, GA AND FL, INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS AND UP THE EASTCOAST. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN IN THE SYSTEMS INTESNITY AFTER TUESDAY MORNING, SO ITS UNCLEAR AS TO HOW THE EASTCOAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM, BUT SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK PROMISING. IF YOU LIVE IN THE STATES OR REGIONS I MENTIONED, PLEASE HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO HANDY AND MONITOR ALL UPDATES BY THE NWS AND NWS SPC
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 22:32:16 +0000
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